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[lastpost] => 2751286 SpaceX突然挪动价值超1.5亿的比特币,是要抛售?还是只是“打扫钱包”? 1753633882 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势8 K# Q8 U- y9 Q- G) I+ j
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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& I) j- o3 u( j& v' cPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。- I F2 I5 z6 |+ Q- P. E) e
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。; [4 _# F1 x: G0 E
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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; t |! r1 b# a当前持仓成本:. J. U4 E) h1 k5 `# p
& C; A# E/ P, [$ O: L机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;; u9 R7 k! C6 \" Z' v. T2 r) H8 z
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;9 [2 D& Z2 U4 z' Q u
! i& G5 A* b7 Q. sETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。* E5 L# p) ` \! K3 v3 x) U1 Z- x
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比特币价值回归:/ p* Z1 L! _& v
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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* h0 K( r& N- }5 a随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。2 A6 K8 O/ [' G" j# U8 {1 z( L
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况' A' s- p3 S$ Z
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8 |5 q# H( ^5 D8 p4 Y! S8 m虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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- Y, }! ^5 Z3 J5 a" N2 s8 yBTC:+ h! T8 I: l j- R6 q
+ j! X6 E3 e6 [6 W3 t, F尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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6 y& R% Z R( d) x, B: q8 L5 w如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。- d' P0 _- [* S* C
; A8 h; [" S& _8 x! M3 A3 G/ gSOL与XRP:
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8 v/ L- z% j* ^# e; q' PSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。. T% }# t. r# K
8 ^; f3 S4 K, x$ BXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。) }. m) W( F$ X1 D; |0 e! w
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其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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% x/ g$ z5 ~& t/ ^* d2 R) x山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。( j. M1 l" [. o8 a6 K$ @) W
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目/ K0 ^: W2 a- `7 a5 \
+ ]+ F- y$ L5 zAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。% r- \1 n) e. S' @: a- ^
+ i8 {$ j0 P6 m, m7 l' M蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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/ c$ \& @0 v, `; {- O; z市场展望$ u/ c1 C( G2 B9 [7 l7 ~/ w3 w
) I/ W- f' V3 Q& p$ U+ n随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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