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[lastpost] => 2768743 从对立到共存？德银预测：黄金与比特币未来或同列央行储备 1758786682 rainwang
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能
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成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。+ F; R6 j( n; y" S4 K0 Y: H0 c0 |
4 N( ]( A T [* |& u& S例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀' k: g2 t) m4 P
5 P& {- T3 {) \7 t（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。 @, S4 N; S7 T( `/ e
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关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的: A4 P: F. z% L4 P( L& Q ^
" B2 y& l0 r- G4 p/ g( N政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀+ Z; y+ [, n6 q* X/ k# _
% Q. K8 Z: s7 m! n压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。2 Q, u2 r" N7 Q; i' g$ c
! S Y2 {; R, d/ k9 ]1 t 此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。1 f" z- K5 M$ T2 K2 n: O) S
- x3 s9 R- J& L" c+ y' k h今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产7 S V" \+ ?" H8 [$ g2 N
3 P8 _! o7 ~& S$ t( @4 T/ F2 L- F对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战
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略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来$ @+ W. g( ~% R7 F/ d4 m/ l
/ j9 q7 Y& V1 V& M& c5 A看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。7 F/ `0 N: W) d. G, _/ t4 o9 x
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