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[lastpost] => 2763353 稳定币的下一战：稳定币网络的巨头之争（转） 1757175847 caoch
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能" r+ E! k6 V1 n8 h- I: j; {
9 I7 N) b( ?- C. S* `
. y+ t( y' {' c: t2 |. U' n成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。, Q% _2 t4 L) d
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例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀$ p% T+ F6 ~; J/ {% k
& D+ B" d" F: F: [1 ?2 y( v* m（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的* H _4 S7 d1 s d* E
, h. f+ f) m5 H/ v5 b3 s# M政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀% j1 T+ i" K9 x* I4 z0 z/ I5 d+ w
* h! |1 [7 U5 O7 J% O& V3 `压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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- }6 ~2 ~7 I# I5 s; X. s7 G6 h: q# l+ J 此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。
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今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产6 \' r2 _) d+ o
! E' t! `. ^" A7 l; @; L* s7 u! n对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战/ P- n8 W3 s0 p
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略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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( W4 c! B8 }. M5 M1 Y6 V7 R看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。
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