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[lastpost] => 2749629 关税、就业、降息预期极限拉扯，BTC劲升9.08%，创历史新高（07.07~07.13）（转） 1752668153 mattf
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能
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成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。& X6 ^( C# X: s, G
8 f; a- D( @* g( K; q例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀
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1 y9 [, D9 m& ~! ]1 @（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
# w" i n3 M5 ?* q; d % l/ e, Y% o+ e' w' x/ S: m
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$ x. h. {% O, z8 P# e 尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
* z' Y' \ l* ~8 b" M- C/ V& ?! R# v: B" k7 i: `7 h: p4 w1 ?
关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的) a$ F! V k/ ]
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政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀
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压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
5 q' ^, l9 } a0 W' W1 `5 j
' z- s& V& A0 ^3 s* R/ I* c 此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。7 Q7 U1 |/ O3 W0 ?* C
" \/ Y7 H5 i/ `+ c/ t今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产9 m! r% R3 e: W$ j! n# U* o
# Y5 P; Z$ ]" m" J# U. ~! W) d对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战
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略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。# B* A5 o* }& A$ U9 l& _% J
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