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[lastpost] => 2749281 数字货币攻防战：警惕骗局披上“稳定币”马甲（ 转） 1752589885 liuxin960
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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎' Y! a9 Y( K6 c4 A& N7 s
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？
. R6 D, a8 |; c3 \/ f. c& V六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。
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# Z- D! g" d/ J然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。$ H& D* E7 w3 b) Z. @: K
4 y; F/ @' U) v! r9 M- _这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?/ j5 s+ ~. o% P" B" t+ F( H
& g/ G- v; Q* d/ p) s$ L! a1 [4 z随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌! v9 @' o" |; ?6 W. e
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。: T* D) w. ]. f; T% x
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在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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3 [9 D& K8 y! {1 z有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。: x6 L- G9 e' j; N
1 K B1 G0 c! f3 P. M简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。: X6 l' w* l7 V
* R+ x+ k5 w1 l D6 u. v三年后，形势发生了逆转。9 Q: p: q! L7 S' s! t
~6 S& q. g! F& {8 Y/ ?这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。
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发生了什么变化？机构资本.0 @, [: _9 L6 x9 e. [) n
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。
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1 L0 h: C# b2 ]7 D零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。- z, l3 y: N$ Z. W1 ]# z
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因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。
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山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上: D8 ?% @# p# Z# o0 ^$ z3 g! |2 N+ V
我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。
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; b8 ?) d; [* ^" @! \- @这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。$ G( I, ]; p1 M! D) Z3 z* z9 J
* C! i: J2 B4 k' D: q$ @XRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。( T" j# Y, v) z- ~5 L" E
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。
: A, r* u1 P$ I4 R- b2 c- y" ~
" E8 L8 |4 d1 ]9 P* M在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。; G2 u- b3 {& n3 D; N- t9 T, r
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