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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势7 i8 B3 k9 @) B
7 \* S; e, C) C* T8 t过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。& V( x) o/ L1 q0 [; y# ?
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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( u0 W9 u6 `0 N# Q- _4 c2 HCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期8 x: v& x! K5 D: O1 L% [& _0 A
" H, s/ L6 d/ M( s% q, x( r当前持仓成本:! J/ J4 ~8 T; o5 U) i
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;, o) _- S0 K5 H) p% C) F
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;) _. c7 c( }6 A5 v5 k
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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比特币价值回归:
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5 [3 i0 g" n" f" _4 c市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。) a' r6 r6 n9 c' p/ W! w7 u
! f& {1 B" O" C& s加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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/ R2 O! l6 U$ @, Z$ [' C虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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. k$ _; j8 e- B N& _机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:2 t# n0 T, G2 {* o. m; Y( K3 u
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。* i. |% r. n7 l) e* K# l
0 u( f4 S! ?; p: x4 i ~: K如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:0 r. n; t1 R; U/ T( ~
. x1 {9 G$ j4 Q4 QSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。1 Y1 [( O |2 t- E+ K( t. d1 y
/ X8 ]+ u# ]2 U, D) I+ b/ dXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。' L+ S5 ?3 Z/ N8 K& [7 t' `
( H9 s* P- o- h1 V其他热点项目:
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" E" w* |' e6 n$ ?) f Q& j涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。/ l; b; X1 i# M. e- ~: R r; _, C: Q
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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/ \7 V: Z8 Q& q- V* [2 C4 d4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。4 E/ r' c$ G/ i3 E
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。' J3 U" R3 q3 ]3 ^5 B7 G8 f& e: n
' p% ]6 O" `; `0 T$ K4 i8 ^市场展望" k* w: _/ E. Z3 F7 Y+ f9 G
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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