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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管:人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转)
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称,在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易,而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际,比特币是一个“世代机遇”。
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! P" I, T2 b9 E( H9 R5 ~Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示:“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”) u6 s1 H1 e9 p1 l% o
5 b- C" ]7 P5 C( B- O8 ^# K) hPark 指出,2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元,旨在增加ZF支出,同时还有去全球化趋势加剧,尤其是唐纳德·特朗普2 }: X3 {* b, N0 b2 d
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。
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Park 还指出,市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”,指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”,共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”,以及他认为即将实施
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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2 R+ `7 P3 h6 _3 Q' p" q0 P0 [8 M+ r美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日,他告诉参议院银行委员会,美国经济“保持强劲”,美国“不需要急于调整”利率。/ D5 D. o2 Z. W" G
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Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道:“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”7 _+ O u7 ]/ q9 C |- v' N
4 I c# Q, A" C* j( E( G“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的,你看不到这一代机会,所以我们不一样了,”Park 补充道,他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率! w+ Z) Z* u" z4 G
8 b/ A. B$ C! |, u4 z0 X低于当前水平的天数百分比。
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根据 Deribit 的数据,比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90,低于年度高点 71.28,IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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6 a3 z* I9 H6 v据 CoinGecko 数据,比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%,交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。; b9 i; x ]: l0 b* S7 W
7 h% O9 U% ?% h- R t& `1 J5 K今年到目前为止,比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间,但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。# F' y5 a& `/ i+ n- n1 L
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分(总分为 100 分),表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善,但低于4 z( E/ Y) K5 }& ^
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。* y" x+ L& g; K$ J0 t% o8 n% @% U
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