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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。3 L$ S) L; }" v4 F
. x( E# T* `9 V9 N/ `% z* G( q3 r1 \Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”3 ^* F$ i+ Q2 o
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Park 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普+ L/ T& K8 o- Z( s! L/ L& |9 s% j
9 S5 L& u" L: [0 B3 I- \& Z最近升级的互惠关税威胁。8 j/ g2 S# _) i8 r9 T
4 }+ c( V" L! V( V% M' t. `$ l0 B- mPark 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施; Q% q, u3 K- i" r; A1 C3 x8 j
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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8 F# K2 h' ~# n美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。2 `, x& g1 ]0 o- T
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/ D& X R2 i. ~- t2 ^* ^4 nBitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”, I4 ~" Y) q: q5 s/ \( K
3 Q( e1 d+ \1 V- w R. n6 p/ Y“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率; r x$ R* b n! E& L1 C
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。
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根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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6 r$ }' W- p6 E7 }8 U6 f据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。2 G0 Y8 g9 X3 \- W" U' K/ u- ^
2 k A1 O; ?- ? p: K3 M0 Y; Q今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。( q8 U# V! W$ I& K: _
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于: Y0 d/ M0 z, W! q8 Z
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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