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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。% n; s- O( q) S y$ F
8 P. f- e! R% c+ h 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。. u! g2 p; m2 r* ] P9 |
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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3 r3 r! t6 W& _5 z# S 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。( ~- _$ n& e2 u! C
2 `9 l7 i9 e! f0 n 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。$ B4 F4 G% Q+ D+ K! W
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8 J$ Q5 ?# I# ^ f# k" g$ q9 t, X+ ~; p3 ^; a2 [
$ H( M$ i* n3 i6 n7 U5 y 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。2 X+ i8 \! ?/ R$ j2 p# J( h y8 e
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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0 ?/ `& V% G. D) V% `价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。& G9 o, [/ a/ M {
& [2 E' m d K; A$ {! v2 C “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间 I% x% a) J" h: i5 i' o! j8 {8 O# J0 R
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”! w/ R, x4 u( V6 b) x2 }2 n: Z
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) I- @$ b. i& ? 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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& I+ P5 Q" x: x8 W' ~' A “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在0 o0 \, t- {" o- B
( z' T0 j. R% Q7 B8 c. H积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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2 `* D6 J2 v$ v8 @5 s' [" _( |# ] 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。7 @+ @+ d, l$ ~0 C L7 j
1 h; X3 W) ~0 ]( }' Z+ X 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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& T( h5 |2 q: P: S, Z6 y 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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Y+ t3 j# g; b8 y 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。" c) m: p! L3 y$ J4 Y5 L
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，. J8 [+ L; ]3 V# ~& h
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。” M9 v4 t4 D3 ]4 _5 d0 C" I9 k
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