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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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2 X' @% \6 u% q& G/ v 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。. _$ v) i: e, G2 C! x! Z- {
0 H+ F7 T6 P( C& u! q- y* i% l 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续" l& {$ ^) D3 W5 m/ {
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。" F: f: K5 D R* K/ v
$ b* G: y3 X3 V* { 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，% P5 A0 m+ ~3 I0 k1 O
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。. B( j6 P. U# P* P1 p0 f
+ o2 G6 s! f0 v/ t3 t% @/ ?# o “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”% I4 N2 ]# ~0 x# T4 o) N: C( I
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0 v6 a. W0 N: k n7 i 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。/ _5 k* j9 @! z
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在/ Z: D6 [. Q3 b! P2 d" s2 ^
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。" [7 W$ }0 x- }( g# f2 H) Y- F
) |7 z; @. R: X e: b* i 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。- R/ i i+ r3 U! S' p' J
/ ]6 h- X5 ^& L# v, h% B 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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! O* a1 Z) Z. r1 a- [8 t 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。- H! L3 y" E) g7 l+ f7 d! p8 G2 b# F
8 V; U5 o1 U6 ?, @) _) s8 a2 ]" w0 w 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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- R1 l0 q2 s! A* R市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”4 A+ I9 U9 O) a+ Z7 M+ O% R7 S
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