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[lastpost] => 2771854 如果Base有空投,你要怎么撸?(转) 1759853343 caoch
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势2 |# s# Q" C D% y/ s: f
& w" m' j a) t F" ~: p, Z8 v过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。 ]. t- U r& y8 B% e, \2 W
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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6 _5 |- }9 I7 }" y& `7 v2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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5 ]' R: a& E. }8 j, S当前持仓成本:
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% [& G7 M3 [& C7 q, }8 p4 D机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;+ k; k$ Q6 B2 u) L
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。5 ?7 k; I4 {, h6 e
2 C6 e# k) N6 `) ~! ~比特币价值回归:7 b1 b" C6 F0 h. M1 F6 Z- Y5 f0 O) O
6 v Z, o1 I- t- i N# N4 E* q: h0 @" Y市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。9 A; I4 ~2 J* W3 p7 |( u
o. M) K4 ]' S; {/ q1 A c T随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。: D1 W+ v$ O; l2 g
5 O6 \1 C# m7 j3. 市场热点与反弹情况$ J0 v* |+ N Y
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ETH:
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; c4 p4 ]) q& i: P; N虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。1 Y4 A, G1 W7 _* z8 |- C
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:
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7 t/ G- v$ s4 A2 I6 r D, iSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:
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% k g+ ]- ?1 N) l. Y涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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2 ^; Z$ v: i Z1 Z7 ?( B山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。( X/ Q9 {8 W I) _% ?3 ], `0 p5 Q
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。% @2 ~+ o9 S7 K- p
3 p6 L5 z. [& s3 ~& C. z$ |新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。; T( Y9 W2 Q" q5 Y9 S
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市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。7 F% L2 A- t1 [ Q3 q7 K$ P
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