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[lastpost] => 2756447 美国7月CPI引爆市场 以太坊再度拉升逼近4,400美元-转 1755617988 爬格子的瘦书生
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。3 M6 K3 u/ L1 ?2 N* v1 z: V
7 [" _. l5 S @3 DPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。" N7 q" e9 P9 |! m
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期& }1 B, g( h$ A! o
: X$ T- n* ~1 n/ p当前持仓成本:& A* o( w, z* k1 U6 r: m6 g* t
# K/ `* r; f9 N机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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# X2 E' u* g) e5 T4 FETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。 z' Q+ V" y& r0 Y! [8 k" q
5 V3 M1 }' _' T; X比特币价值回归:8 c. H% |* [; R7 |
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。. ]: I0 o/ v7 Y) p! k: O& c5 P
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。1 M* W' \! Z& F% e
& v8 C0 Z D3 R5 G+ ~加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。( r) X% l+ o: J0 j5 F r0 h7 V
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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ETH:/ ]8 \- G% [4 t+ X" c1 E
# Z4 O7 \& F- @7 \. Z7 b# ~2 X虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。$ Y3 d* A5 w6 M8 B/ ^/ t% t+ i
, [/ {; C$ M- k9 L& @. \机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。! c- w8 e# r" \ U
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- s2 u. o' h2 \# r0 ?8 C尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。( [7 B( W4 [. r" ^" @0 [% i
4 @1 u {' f' W6 P" F6 |6 }6 C8 `SOL与XRP:' v, j8 G! [6 Q7 v
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。% s4 t! f9 `4 k0 }* O
. a" K1 a* O: T6 K- jXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:$ V/ C3 f# f h1 j
- |/ J+ z5 W8 U5 t2 V ?; X涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。0 t7 O7 _; b& e. b- }; c4 q
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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8 `4 A! ]0 P5 I9 b3 y* ?蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。! R& a1 S+ b- J/ O: Q6 W6 U) m
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。* Y4 x7 ]6 r# j, t' M% S9 ~
6 N; s" H( E' }0 l, a8 ~市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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