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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。' s% g& ]& N+ L* k+ ?+ S3 s
1 |2 t- v4 a% p9 A2 qBitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”% @3 E6 @9 N' p8 u) _: }7 r
% v/ ^1 }% H" f- T1 x4 _1 a) ^Park 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。
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. z- d9 {# [. d yPark 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施; Z/ _% G9 }) F) {: B+ _
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。7 \) Z4 K4 j R$ o' i* s4 \4 r
7 e/ Q* k& W3 l! m. i% \美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。6 t4 T. a& y1 e$ k' i
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Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”
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“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率! l# ^9 ?0 y0 E/ O, @6 }( Y w9 L
+ F q9 R1 b1 H/ }6 J低于当前水平的天数百分比。; p7 Z% c! ?2 }7 K& v$ U) v
6 q! n m3 W. W: Y6 t根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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( I" n; q' R0 d3 b" a6 ^据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。
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8 t9 j0 j; C1 l今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。0 S# R [3 \: m1 F$ i2 v( y$ }& e
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于
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9 L8 g9 w) `+ b, P上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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