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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。
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( S+ |; i; A" C3 ~6 LBitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”/ i) B: I+ n$ t: A$ w. _
' h* b" W$ [. j" bPark 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普" ` P- f+ A$ u1 V* ?+ M2 U
+ ?6 s8 A7 d5 J最近升级的互惠关税威胁。
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; ~# @6 O! M+ ]! N3 dPark 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施! R# Q4 P/ @5 \ \8 a0 l4 I" n5 e
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。$ \/ T0 K c- A: R
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美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。/ @5 D) i! I: T$ P
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7 P" q$ X: T0 E% W; S( i' \" x; ?$ }Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”9 ^* y& ?4 ]" l
) ^0 s5 f1 e# O+ k% ?“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。/ E2 f- H- K+ |* F
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根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。& R7 f1 |/ M& ]( t
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今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。
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# ?- M8 W$ C+ o5 G$ |) p追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于/ h( o/ f$ a( @/ Y/ d6 ]
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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