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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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& }! U" ?3 |+ C 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。* j1 Y$ c4 u2 ?7 k6 c
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。& \) E& ^" {. z Y R- A) b4 [
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( Z+ X: v3 m! B2 K 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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- `6 b3 V% M& X) f Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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1 V- J% O$ Q. l& G) `' x) Z# b1 K0 l5 U 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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% ~& s5 m+ A" O* m, h9 o 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。5 K1 H# l* f7 O+ h* s8 G& p U
6 [. f/ [, R2 }( W* @ 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，% g* c* W1 e8 z `6 l
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。. _$ {; i6 O& v5 ~) R
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”) h/ P2 { d S" ?
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。& D8 r! ~3 ?: z G. l/ j( h
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”$ h7 Q3 I' G+ c/ y6 m$ l4 K5 ?
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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4 |/ e, v( o* z% Q0 i. f' q 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。. t8 S7 ~# u0 {. q3 H1 S
1 L5 M5 k( U! \7 v$ P 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势7 f% c6 L( M3 o
* ~ i8 h& r3 H2 m( q) c d" ^# ^5 Y 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。3 x" W; {+ X' S1 g! g
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。7 m" k q. g0 ?* j% ~
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: n! e/ a. {; F4 q 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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