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[lastpost] => 2783810 比特币从超卖低点反弹 2%——这是反弹行情的开始吗？（转） 1763988764 爱美的女人
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。1 K7 U0 H/ h) L$ z' K
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续 A' I& e* z+ }( N
9 ~, o; s5 s2 h5 b( x Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。. k2 E/ O7 U% ~2 L
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。8 `0 U0 G1 ~4 ?6 [8 N& r
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Z! Q% S0 K. K0 z 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。 I( d, V7 o$ }: T+ ]* b$ t8 m
1 G$ X; l' ?9 e1 l0 R* R 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，* p8 w4 d4 t+ z% i
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间* i: F8 y0 }0 f! A7 L* B! ~: J
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。% }+ A% s# h6 \/ }
7 }4 |2 C: [. A “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在2 C: G- `) O* r7 J; ^0 ~; m4 B
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”% p U: x6 |! q
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; D% K. ~% z7 R" R: f 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。. q0 ^/ s% k4 Z
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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4 W% O! x- V) |! c1 x 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势, Q) f( m" Y/ n* Z. z% ^' c |
3 L" }+ k! v; m5 e 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。# F0 J6 [. M# g- S- t- f* m
$ F% O" K$ }) ~0 y/ ?/ m 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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G# ]% \# k4 j% M 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是， V, {& Y# [9 g' J3 ]2 R1 p3 O* _) _( s
) u y5 }! m. s7 s r+ i市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”( ^: I# l' R: z2 g$ e
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