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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。2 X# M6 I4 x, n- }
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国" s9 }' W3 d* ?3 h( _& ?5 u! l
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。) e" s7 N( U& I: G8 X
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与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而! v7 }' w7 E' c+ ]* s+ m
- A1 y3 v, n. M" z' z8 [: n* c“短期看空”比特币。
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; ~1 y4 a2 F9 i' ]. u0 W7 K) Z “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
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1 y, }( H+ c2 O5 Q实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”; s; D" N1 _4 j9 [1 B0 @4 Q
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报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。' J5 @- N) x3 h
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根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，5 p! k/ r! Y, l* o% t) T% i3 ?' J
1 k& A1 T* V( k1 k. y; H- D而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。" a1 p( I' T* O( M: C* h+ y$ x: O
( ?" U3 \" i, u3 q& V BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的# n( J: W* Q6 o9 r
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”
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' o8 T S) u, x( F, B “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，3 F: {9 h$ i$ j& O0 p
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将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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