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[lastpost] => 2753382 龙头NFT月涨百倍,BRC 2.0升级引爆新一轮BTC生态?(转) 1753983661 林武风
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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, A5 t( ]; H* M+ _4 ^" U# [过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。9 [6 N0 M" g, v* Z- |( `
' ^( H9 g. h, S0 A5 RPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。, j, C3 I7 Z3 ]8 J) J0 ]0 e$ H
! c$ \7 Q5 G6 o5 eCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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# a8 z* ^: B1 ]# \! A当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;/ m: V; f# I/ \+ l, g
1 w" [6 `% e! l4 k* t: I微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;. i3 U! `! [! w* r7 u, _9 @
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。2 |; ~* z, @+ X" ~9 }
8 q0 _: |( q& Z+ @1 I2 K1 i% q& G+ b比特币价值回归:. `) l' I" b5 \0 q T3 c
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。8 Y2 I2 j$ P' @5 @3 x
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况 f9 f; M/ N6 F3 y5 l! f
2 J! z! W( J. Z( y& SETH:. }4 s1 V- ~" I8 W0 d0 @
i+ [* {" [% l6 {4 k O/ T0 e5 _虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。! [# i- p* A b" S" O$ T
: Q3 U3 W8 X8 w$ k机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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0 v& g- A" w9 P; L' Q尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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2 W* ?3 c) N* l. ~! M, F* B3 f如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。7 @- ?) R: Z) [% n- G$ y( u
3 P; w) \1 {$ a5 PSOL与XRP:$ A- E. O, \+ |$ Q4 l7 z% K: E+ N
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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1 c9 ~( W3 i8 d8 T2 s7 T! ~XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。3 w' D6 J! F* o! W' o& U$ X9 D- S/ \
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其他热点项目:) y2 P1 h2 r" f* O$ H4 w0 z
]9 Z2 Z# N; Q0 r, x涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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% r& Z6 L* c; h) U2 _山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。7 l) C1 Y4 m$ K2 ]6 K
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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6 v# J+ ^! k: L' I) }/ sAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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1 U$ O/ v5 ]9 t' o新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。0 q$ n# O N& M9 i
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市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。, e3 W. a+ Z* n, a+ v
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