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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管:人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转)
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称,在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易,而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际,比特币是一个“世代机遇”。7 K% h9 F/ n, _$ c" a; R6 z( T
2 q; A3 i$ M I- F/ \! j6 W7 l5 tBitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示:“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”2 i2 a" c, q% ?' x7 K* r
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Park 指出,2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元,旨在增加ZF支出,同时还有去全球化趋势加剧,尤其是唐纳德·特朗普3 |/ z4 `8 k) b+ f5 L4 W
9 \8 e- M7 T7 E; T2 ~7 r7 A, {- x最近升级的互惠关税威胁。
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3 a# L7 Y" c- v0 y8 e4 u/ OPark 还指出,市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”,指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”,共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”,以及他认为即将实施$ I1 _6 Y7 X* t
6 H' t/ }/ c1 h& G4 h, {: v的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。/ r: W3 i n( R3 z! q0 d$ ?. V7 U
4 v& ]7 s8 c# @美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日,他告诉参议院银行委员会,美国经济“保持强劲”,美国“不需要急于调整”利率。
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$ X# p; d" X: w! F; o# ZBitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道:“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”
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+ K: g# i( G2 s$ I1 t- I4 u“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的,你看不到这一代机会,所以我们不一样了,”Park 补充道,他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率
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( A+ D1 ]2 B) x+ Y2 A低于当前水平的天数百分比。$ c1 |2 |5 \; E0 |7 a' B
7 R' W" V/ H9 C1 ~) L( m根据 Deribit 的数据,比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90,低于年度高点 71.28,IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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3 _! K& K* A4 w; S3 T据 CoinGecko 数据,比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%,交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。; P8 M& \3 f+ x0 u* J# q
: B1 `; D" q- @今年到目前为止,比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间,但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。3 W% F' o0 u% j, D
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分(总分为 100 分),表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善,但低于! H5 f/ ?: g! H9 f& W+ X& P! l# M" T
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。) x" z% B$ K4 _' ~. l$ [
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