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[lastpost] => 2761385 稳定币为何成为全球立法焦点(转) 1756609084 九嶷风
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; [9 E8 B0 s6 j 美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整,这将对经济产生短期的负面影响,然而,过去一周的市场条件不太可能- \- @! g( p& v: p ~+ l" a- `
# _! C z4 e0 _
& S/ B9 x% c5 w2 Y9 f G- }成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施,这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。+ {/ P+ Y& e9 H3 g
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例如,虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀(即造成滞涨),某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀# `! c5 v+ z1 T% R K
7 Q m" d; R2 o4 f# f(即减少滞涨),最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。6 [3 W6 u/ p7 U. ]/ v% w7 }

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尽管前景存在不确定性,最好的猜测是,美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
# m x5 \) m. P/ ?$ i) ~
5 J: J! _. C4 K" j) s, A5 Z# K关税本身可能会减缓增长,但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的
8 i/ Z' N6 [# o) O3 P. z+ J k# y: t3 v2 q4 b
政策,尽管最初受到关税的冲击,GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲,历史表明,一段时期内持续的通胀
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/ g1 H2 }( R7 L5 t. t. D压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。* g0 n- p: r% N( L. [
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此外,就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样,比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。) f: V" b- O- ^
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今年以来,白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化,这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资,包括撤销一系列诉讼,确保资产
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对传统商业银行的适用性,以及允许受监管的机构(如托管人)提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战
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$ W8 W, ~/ Q8 Z; s0 J略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素,但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来$ B! c: F6 c3 j" \& g, _9 j" E1 m, z# s
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看,宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善,可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。/ }/ t2 ~3 w8 H
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