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[lastpost] => 2751619 两年来首次,以太坊交易资金超过比特币(转) 1753345227 stareshiny
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索(转)
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。 i' E3 V+ B, e
矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩,5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。
- D7 ^1 @' I" m: u C+ C这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。2 N. f T% U4 m+ l, H8 i3 V
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价格虽然强劲,但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动,就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅,跌回六位数以下。
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3 p0 I/ Y6 f/ }+ B风险如此之大,谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同,有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格,这为他们带来了巨额利润。
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3 D" l3 D" D% F9 h9 K* S. M0 E从历史上看,矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么,在市场观望的同时,我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股?
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3 v% V; E7 ?6 i减半后的挖矿经济; X: z4 a4 ^- X8 m
2024 年 4 月减半之后,矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC,这给他们带来了沉重打击。$ e' e2 l7 T- n. Z
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问题是,虽然奖励每四年减半,但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样,但每个区块的收益却只有一半。) f& l1 r) I, u
+ \& S. U" E6 n3 C/ `: A ]自然,这导致平均采矿成本飙升。: R' B7 k( h1 S- z# G
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到4月底,比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元,而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环,市场陷入了窄幅震荡。) l3 F- S5 @7 ^8 A
0 H$ K8 n9 ~# j( i9 f4 w* e为什么?因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略:储备枯竭,比特币市场陷入低迷,矿工收入开始减少。
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, P$ c- x! h0 @& Q: w1 _9 Y" M换句话说,不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率(BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本)进一步受到挤压之前退出,加速全面矿工投降阶段。
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- m" D/ @0 l7 K9 f, S$ ]比特币市场陷入困境,矿工竞相前进
: Q9 {, K7 P0 v3 F( M距离第四次减半还有一年,开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右,而比特币市场一直横盘整理,BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。
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& }2 W# S' Z: o" l% _确实,比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%,甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。
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t1 q* ^3 ~6 b. j( x3 q$ ^) ^* b) \6 }但如果我们继续计分的话,矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。
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3 K, q# ^0 z: U) R( i2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。
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据 The Block 报道,矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入,其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。
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2 |$ l* M' T. b1 w$ t" Y话虽如此,早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数(MPI)已回升至零以上,暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。 `& |6 ^% ]' s; }6 C- `
$ ^9 o1 x5 \( Q3 \1 f从历史上看,大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前,尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。' v' P: y1 I, H; O1 k
& t2 D) V# Q r这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间,一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。
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这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索?这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。4 y" m; M8 m' U) Z/ B
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索?
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