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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
/ F0 Q1 t* T7 m. P1 Q5 E5 g以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. D% Q3 @5 p# y- E
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 . f% I$ }% Q/ j& `& Y! K
以太坊基金集体亏损 # R6 f: D; e4 {/ _$ g: p" y7 |4 {
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
6 P5 M3 n% l' [: r X与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 5 }, p! c& K5 f1 D
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。 ) u! A7 z1 E+ w( j D$ l! C
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编辑切换为居中 7 v, A: K! V+ p
流入/流出加密资金(按资产) 1 V+ G% w3 ?, b0 ~
这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
7 B0 Z7 Q2 G* E' X8 e- x1 j4 P以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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编辑切换为居中 - I S0 N4 y$ \( `
6月5日的TVL以太坊
0 J' O. }6 N6 g9 t6 d& ^但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
: x( a U7 {1 I: b- W* r5 W/ T5 E宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
- }) {, ?9 Y2 x3 l男性讲述金融时报: ' W N& Z: T( s3 @3 t
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
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呆滞的技术面 9 k- b% n# y% u {% j
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
6 _6 D) M% F* s, W具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
' V5 ~1 x3 b: w: _3 q8 p; c* [根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
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编辑切换为居中 " w6 e) B& q/ u% Z; c
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 " H2 |' H5 [$ P& f; Y7 w$ T
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 ( h# ~3 ~& c5 I: V0 F( C
交易所的ETH储备正在增加 ; n% b' |5 N3 r
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. * z. z1 K: n1 S5 A, S, e' @
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 , R" L4 P4 P T% z% ]7 C2 B5 m
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编辑切换为居中
4 G* k P X6 P2 d! Q: ^2 ~% m' R以太坊外汇储备
% H1 X. c/ G3 y5 ~& e5 P8 z( F7 \通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 3 u$ @, a7 {& f" s+ T d
来源：金色财经 |
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