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[lastpost] => 2752202 别被“纸黄金（ETF）”骗了！清崎再次发声：危机来时，照片里的枪开不了火！ 1753895355 天策-瑶娥
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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 / w' a) U& U. K. g6 D# ~5 J
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
* ~9 E5 z# T, w9 n% A此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 & K* I5 x l: j' }. Y( }
以太坊基金集体亏损
' S. M* _) c, ?1 I. O( P根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
$ _2 @- Z9 V9 C1 ?' t1 u# u2 g/ L与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 . c8 S5 d' y% P t- `' r1 e
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
/ @" s& S* k6 n5 [8 _
4 Z0 N+ j" a; a1 w编辑切换为居中 6 p* ^0 V" r, k
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
) N R; q( E4 [7 E8 `4 ?# [这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
* L. c" k) N, _5 E$ c以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 3 e! q+ D; {3 P% l
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编辑切换为居中
' m7 c, u2 ^ Y: ~4 z/ f7 b6月5日的TVL以太坊
7 o$ Q6 t- Y% C0 I) C但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
' P9 Q7 }+ r* H w* H$ S0 q宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 5 ^2 t2 Z' a3 E6 t5 }% P- s( p
男性讲述金融时报:
7 J' H7 G j$ Z* n5 ]0 w% q; p“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
: }5 U' H% @' h; {5 G呆滞的技术面 O# @2 K6 a! P& F! V \9 `
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
; u- y$ T/ Z7 h具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 ( g% H" L7 [/ [6 ^6 x8 h! k
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 ( p9 \" k( \6 ]( ], V! s
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编辑切换为居中 : E5 C9 o3 a. | Q& Z, }- R3 s5 T
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
0 O, ?4 E. r. E+ A0 z1 d1 f0 ?, Z# ~如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 ' e( A. P9 @# W# R4 `; [, }( E3 S
交易所的ETH储备正在增加
$ r3 |. Z; p1 V8 g0 C2 e. [CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
c H' u1 Q5 h, J自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 7 n1 e& C8 s0 m- m# o* p M
1 E ]* W3 X8 `, O6 j* X- ~; {编辑切换为居中 0 j+ p% h; c' A, Y( M8 l
以太坊外汇储备
; T# _. ~) {+ \, g通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 8 I, F0 F& U: i5 D! u4 r* C0 h
来源：金色财经 |
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