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[lastpost] => 2769555 喊一喊就涨?川普次子抄底记录大起底 1759336128 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势' p: i) ]; ]7 f' K+ N
. K, e/ I4 n( \, ^4 n过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。- ~. O9 w6 X% M C
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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N- j: p( L$ |: P9 u( W+ vCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。, Y* r8 \& V- w3 H k
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期. k' y# J) ~9 i1 z g& \
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当前持仓成本:1 |: p; o4 R, k" Z* X
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;7 q x. Q ^) a( g
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;2 o4 C! D/ e% c4 a4 {6 z
. z' }' ] T6 \9 |) KETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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比特币价值回归:) J+ v' Z! k$ Y" W% D8 `- X, j
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。2 q) g6 _" d; [1 u8 r& ]
; }+ x( S1 m4 o随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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8 s. I" ?0 i6 q# b( ^/ Y' E加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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. C0 z1 j/ b9 j3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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ETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。* v# D1 Z/ x+ G
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:6 Q$ M9 K& {9 ?! E
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。6 T# _% F% o2 A1 L; {
2 Y6 ?. g L; q' e9 [* l' \' }% V其他热点项目:8 j3 {" W' r i( v5 d+ u
8 H( Z. }: H5 T- P: a$ o7 m涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。0 |. ]7 T# }8 v+ A
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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* z$ q: u$ P) {9 c' V: W4 l5 yAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。+ J2 |* f1 X0 b% \7 `% o
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。' L; D- G5 z5 Q9 H# ?0 Y# q
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。5 G. B# e$ j; V+ R% e+ A7 q3 W
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市场展望, V$ F$ a, p+ C/ k$ b, x% K) \
# K5 j4 _! ]2 }+ d: o2 p9 R随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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