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[lastpost] => 2749907 链上指标：比特币能否突破13万美元大关？（转） 1752740923 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币以98,000美元的价格违反了疑问，那么为什么投资者仍然谨慎？（转）
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比特币集会高于$ 98K，与持续的负面投资者情绪形成鲜明对比；难以置信的可能性可能表明机会。+ ^$ y/ ]) z' c# d
大量的ETF流入促进了BTC，但2022年风险的风险仍然可能使这种动力脱轨。6 a; Q! S2 f$ F" Y7 X
尽管比特币[BTC]令人印象深刻的持有超过$ 98K的大关，投资者的情绪越来越低。这引起了一波怀疑，在牛市中，这感觉奇怪的是不合时宜。
2 C6 d, `( D* y6 `- i* ]& Q: c' b# w/ b9 Z) ~. q1 d; l. P5 W( {- u
市场是否难以置信，兴奋不已？还是这些信号反映了2022熊市？& J8 @9 [$ L4 I* T) X- r2 V
8 N) w3 Y/ `9 K% U' Y7 ~2 k随着BTC最近的[激增]重点势头，当前的气候可能与基本面一样由心理学来驱动。
# y( X% u5 T4 B [) ^
5 E7 F4 y9 |6 P& E; I( |牛un云蒙上阴影/ z! B9 w) h, b" U7 i
最近的数据显示比特币X（以前为Twitter）和新闻平台上的价格和普遍情绪。4 z3 R' @3 [& P7 A% ]1 t
, b% k0 V, o" Q即使BTC交易自信地超过9.8万美元，平均7天的平均情绪仍然牢固地负面 - 这种模式在历史上与本地底部和逆势购买机会有关。2 m( s M- P, ]* N; g L& z
$ Q8 h# n9 \" G4 k& N# p! d
这种持续的难以置信表明市场在心理上落后于价格行动。% ?" ^3 M+ R" l# C9 \7 J# h3 l
0 \& L# |! s- C尽管这种情绪下降以前曾在看涨逆转之前，但值得记住的是2022年的警告性故事，在这种情况下，延长的消极情绪与长时间的熊阶段相吻合。
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' e8 F7 E. s" d; W. v; F& CBTC背后的机构引擎
. g: r$ b+ ]9 C0 p在ETF流图表：经过数周的一致流出后，四月迎来了大量ETF流入的政权。, ]( X* g9 I( e
& n* c4 _* s+ q- C- @* H8 T: m
这种重新获得的机构兴趣主要由贝莱德（Blackrock）和富达（Fidelity）等巨人领导，似乎使比特币向上驱动了势头，将其推向了9.8万美元的大关。# B% b) @8 J' d I% x3 a
}! T: E6 h% n1 f& ~* m与较早几个月的挥发性流动不同，该阶段显示出稳定的每日净流入，表明了强烈的长期信念。6 m9 D. x7 Q/ _. d+ X5 y
; ~8 X6 [- ~, x$ q1 I. {机构信心可能是[激增]的关键力量，即使零售情绪仍然谨慎。6 ]4 k t; C2 w; h; z" o
* b- G. |) ^+ y3 U6 L- x/ _怎么了？+ q4 W: H8 @9 `4 y' v9 e
尽管ETF流入信号乐观，但历史使投资者保持谨慎。
' T; Y1 r% R% H4 ]
- N! r' A5 m, C7 x" M2022年，由机构产品和宏观趋势驱动的看涨情绪，由于流动性冲击和杠杆率过多而崩溃。
" o9 l& ]( S/ o0 l" B8 @0 G; A0 d5 }' h' J7 R% N9 B4 z
风险食欲或监管压力的突然转移可能会触发快速流出，从而逆转最近的收益。2 @& A& A3 p/ N" Y
% @$ Q8 n% n$ P8 t/ D
尽管ETF提供了透明度，但它们并不能阻止比特币免受市场波动的影响。如果流入缓慢或转向赎回，比特币可能会面临类似于过去周期的抛售。) V! B3 \; G/ C- z/ d
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