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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。4 q1 z5 b$ o* h8 M: i7 ?" \* P
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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" f5 O0 C& F% O: K" X: S市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。 i- {' \. q$ k5 ]& }* r
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与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而" a! m" y" G& V o# r
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“短期看空”比特币。& a+ {4 S N2 G4 N
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“在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
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实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”; M% p2 N* g' m' V5 V7 p4 K
4 q* x% \. \- A4 h6 b D: U, g 报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。3 g1 d; n/ h- x- F8 w7 m$ w7 p
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: w* i% o4 m; e0 o: P) v( ?! ^ 根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，/ J9 z7 |7 I8 Y/ \* k ?6 e0 z
$ z1 a% ?/ v! P! y/ T) i2 z而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。. B' Q) k# O) g* e) i, U% m
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BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”- e) R( ~4 B/ l, }8 c
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“尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，
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将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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