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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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' X9 ?8 s) o" G9 i4 o% A% I% rUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？1 c7 [7 M' B' i; Z9 F; w
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
/ p* d" w- d. g( L2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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1 Z* c4 }- Y0 @$ q. z- N来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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: p$ c. D9 A, a尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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7 J3 a2 n( b2 g: E9 s- o0 G事情变得有趣了, c7 z4 \: W$ b# ]( ]
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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, \) i+ a: T0 P% g! E9 }来源：X* L9 W6 `% _; j" f, T- R7 K
" s8 u$ Z! @. b0 |根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。" E* r# h" [1 e9 ^' w
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。1 t/ O# E+ D/ ~2 M0 ?0 D. e/ z
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。- U! ~* X! K) f) }- m H- x2 U
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。7 S6 J( I# `$ V# \& l" J
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
B0 e5 X8 ?1 V" W经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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& y6 q4 g( F9 y! l& P& i. M; v然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。6 Y) T3 O1 r5 u" z$ Q( t1 W" c
- n( G; `! a7 M) K' E5 W突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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