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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
7 V! H$ s H& x' J以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. , k; x+ M+ ~) S5 t1 K. `" G
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
! V' X$ V% p+ y. M% l4 o以太坊基金集体亏损
+ k) ?* e: p8 B h0 t根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 / w8 b9 T+ D4 H& u; T
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 $ }( r9 l3 a' _2 R1 O0 O' S. |# d
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。 8 @+ u1 J9 |: k" M- D; l2 x0 v; k, v
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& }0 \% w0 O# e# |% e: |" ?( Z( v, R流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
) o$ u P5 y2 @2 i8 W9 \7 O4 w这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
q7 g) L, ^/ ~( ^5 M* w5 k; E以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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6月5日的TVL以太坊
I% M2 F7 E! ~但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
* f0 J! x. r7 z/ G4 G宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 " g3 Q! A- F n; t. W* g7 t0 L$ F
男性讲述金融时报:
! c5 K" }: \7 @“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
" N* v) s, I. k) ]/ z- K1 g7 d& _呆滞的技术面 ' q- E7 [4 e5 I4 e" a
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 ) w( Z! E, ~8 c2 i$ |+ O, b
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
6 ^! y% K$ c# o# K+ x根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 8 l5 `4 Z: M7 Q! a6 H+ L" m
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, ?4 U6 j, P: X" C* J& OETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 : i- t) A: {* v' p. ?! b
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 & F4 J( U" Y" M: g
交易所的ETH储备正在增加 & W7 n0 Z) O& K% d4 X; _( S# ]
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
* ^3 w% }4 F% T. ]: H自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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$ S6 e; H7 v4 { Y2 v以太坊外汇储备 ( G% F; g& t( a- z- b5 N2 e. Y! A2 j
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 1 C& ^. X: o: j5 ~4 q* ?- q5 ]0 o
来源：金色财经 |
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