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激进的升息预期下，进一步市场抛售恐难避免。
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伴随着美联储上调升息预期，美债的抛售或许远没有结束。 . n2 L% V6 Y% K3 a* j2 Z
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在经历周三强劲反弹后，美国国债在周四亚洲交易时段重新掉头向下，债券收益率大幅反弹。2年期国债收益率上行至3.3155%，5年期国债收益率上行至3.492%，10年期收益率上行至3.91%。
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美联储此前进行自1994年以来最大规模的升息。尽管在言语上进行安抚，但鲍威尔承认，现在宣布战胜已经飙升至四十年高点的通货膨胀还为时过早。美联储政策制定者同时上调利率预期，将美联储明年的基准利率预期中值从之前的2.8%提高到3.8%，有五位决策者甚至预测将超过4%。
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j' y6 R2 e3 i. d4 e7 x, F如此激进的升息路径很难不引起更大规模的市场抛售。目前货币市场预计，随着对联储会收紧货币政策的预期升温，联邦基金利率将在明年年中达到4％的峰值。 8 c, d* y; J, J9 X/ b) h
+ |$ m4 n5 O8 I中金评论认为，美联储官员大幅上调利率预期意味着美联储希望以利率大幅“超调”的方式来控制通胀。点阵图显示2023年联邦基金利率的最高预测达到4.5%，且有5名官员认为利率将达到4%以上，表明不少官员认为加息还应更加激进。美联储或于7月FOMC会议上继续加息75个基点，而在年内剩余的会议上，加息幅度也不会低。 9 U& W0 I9 z/ w
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0 E u1 O& c; y, j1 R& X伴随着美联储持续政策收紧。美国股债市场均受严重冲击，金融环境显著收紧。标普500指数已从今年高点累计下跌了22％。10年期经通膨调整后利率则攀升至2019年以来的最高水平。 3 L" @& ]8 f0 o6 W& M1 N+ |) k
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3 F& I8 i: }6 K8 O ]景顺固定收益和另类ETF产品策略主管Jason Bloom评论认为，美债利率最终利率可能升至4％，但如果经济确实放缓并进入衰退，可能很难看到利率达到这个水平。伴随着金融状况收紧，美联储会可能不必加息到目前预期的水平。
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. n- |, ]4 G& ^' r* o! E$ t我会持续更新我看好的项目或者是看好的板块市场最新消息，大家感兴趣可以点个关注获取最新币圈资讯。 来源：金色财经 |
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