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冷风说币：btc又要暴跌？关键支撑能否开启反弹 2022.07.11
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市场消息
推特已聘请了并购法重量级公司Wachtell， Lipton， Rosen & Katz LLP，正忙着起诉马斯克放弃以440亿美元收购该公司的计划。
上周的消息面真的乱，英国首相辞职、安培晋三遇刺身亡、斯里兰卡破产，总统总理双双辞职跑路，马斯克放弃收购推特公司的计划…
不知道大家发现没有，这个世界有点乱，乱的最根本原因还是经济出现问题了，只有经济不好的时候，大家没有收入来源，日子难过了才导致这种情况，这才是根本。
都说盛世文玩乱世黄金，如今全球乱世，比特币还能如传说中的那样，为类似黄金的避险资产？我不否认比特币有黄金的属性，而且具备一定的避险功能，但从其高度正相关美股市场的实际情况看，比特币更像是一种风险资产而不是避险资产，比特币的走势与“数字黄金”的称号似乎是渐行渐远了。
加密市场这轮暴跌，几乎把整个币圈收割了，不论是一级市场还是二级市场，不论是挖矿的还是炒币的，不论是机构还是个人，能活着出来的都是人精。这轮熊市与以往相比，可能持续时间会更久，更难熬，叠加因素也更多。
乱世持续时间不会很快结束，经济越是不好，金融市场“黑天鹅”、“灰犀牛”事件就会越多。说这些并不是不看好行业未来，只是要明白现在处在什么时期。在这样的大环境下，我们就不要想着把子弹打光去抄底，现在要做的是熬过寒冬，熬过这个乱世，毕竟生存下来才是王道！
行情分析
BTC短线支撑20300-20500美元，短线压力21200-21800美元。比特币周末是破位了支撑跌下去了，先复盘一下周日行情，周六我们说过暂时还是看涨，周日凌晨又冲了一次22000还是没上去，后续就直接跌破21100支撑，下跌到上次给的支撑20500左右，这是典型上攻无力，多头需要回调再次蓄力。冷风是在昨天早上会员群提示多单离场观望的。
已经连续回踩三天（含今早），从盘面来看回踩力度小于上涨的力度，回踩的量能小于反弹的量能，釆取了缩量回调。因此冷风认为大饼再向下的空间已经不大，建议大家可以逢低吸纳了。有空单的要逐步平仓，多单现在小仓开始分批买入。短线多空分割关键点位19800附近。
日内行情很明确是在回调之中，4小时macd还没有转身，但是目前已经跌到支撑，冷风认为已经到支撑的情况下，就不要再追空，观察反弹力度和底部形态，如果能企稳逢低做多。如果没有机会就先观望。
ETH短线支撑1130-1150美元，短线压力1200-1250美元。以太坊也是跟随大趋势一起走回调，也到关键支撑附近，大趋势看还是稍强于比特币一些的，目前的支撑1130-1150支撑区间蕴含均线，布林，中枢，斐波那契等多个技术指标，比较关键，如果被跌破，短线将再次走弱，操作上参考大饼即可。总的节奏还是跟随大饼波动，但反弹过程中会强于大饼，建议等4小时企稳逢低开始吸纳。主流币跟随大饼波动，按照大饼节奏操作。重点关注sushi,uni,link。
山寨币三个原则，大饼稳，板块热，龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点，一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调，存量资金搏弈，局部式行情，而这局部就是山寨币。今天热点板块是defi板块，重点关注comp,dydx,xtz,yfii等。 来源：金色财经 |
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