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冷风说币: 多头逐渐走弱 切记高抛低吸 2022.07.23
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市场消息
目前,经济学家们的主流观点是,美联储在下周的议息会议上将加息75个基点,之后可能会放缓加息的步伐。
今天周末,回顾本周,市场的目光大多还是聚焦在公司二季度财报上了。下周的7月26日-7月27日,美联储将召开为期两天的议息会议,是时候转移关注点了。
本月初经济学家们曾一度预计,美联储将在下周加息100基点,之后也会维持激进加息的步伐,但现在看来这种可能性是微乎其微。
因为美联储6月加息75个基点,已经是1994年以来的最大加息幅度。至于7月份加息,鲍威尔早前表示将从50或75个基点中“二选一”。截至目前,主要的美联储高官表态都暗示75个基点,市场的普遍预期,也是下周加息75个基点,这个概率已经超过80%。届时如果加息幅度符合市场预期,对股市、币市而言,不啻是个利好消息。因为加息多少似乎已经不重要了,重要的是能否符合市场预期。
至于最终的利率水平,经济学家们预计,到明年年初,利率达到3.75%的峰值后,美联储会停止加息,并在明年年底前开始降息。通常来说,经济学家所设想的政策,往往比美联储最终的实际行动要略微更偏鹰派。大白话就是,实际的利率政策要好于专家的预计!
除了加息之外,缩表也是我们的关注点。
美联储的缩表始于6月份,当下美联储正在逐步加快缩表步伐,最终达到每年1.1万亿美元。经济学家预测,到年底美联储的资产负债表规模将由此前的9万亿美元降至8.4万亿美元,到2024年12月将降至6.5万亿美元。
行情分析
BTC短线支撑22000-22500美元,短线压力23700-24000美元。冷风在24300美元附近提醒大家大饼短线会回踩,可能会震荡到27日之前,因此逢高做空为主。
比特币昨天日内保持了大区间震荡,上涨至23800压力,昨晚美股全线收跌,外部环境不理想,后跟随美股下跌至22500支撑,没有破坏趋势。大箱体支撑22300-22500,压力23800-24200。观点依旧维持高抛低吸。
日线收线是保持了3连阴的走势震荡,其他因为拉伸过远的指标也在快速靠近,短线做单风险会慢慢增加,等到变盘的时候朝着哪边走?总之各位做单的时候要更加小心。从结构上来看,只要守住21800-22000美元一带的支撑,大饼短线反弹的趋势没有改变,未来仍会冲击25000-28000美元的高点。
ETH短线支撑1430-1470美元,短线压力1600-1650美元。以太坊昨天假突破,插针回落,实体部分收阴线,证明上方压力还是很大的,1700关键点位是曾经多次下跌的支撑,冷风认为,这个位置不会轻易过去的。
昨天下午冷风及时制止了群里追高行为,因为它离1700美元强压力太近了。从走势上看以太明显强于大饼,以太是本次反弹的引领者,目前处于强整理之中,整理结束后有能力冲击1700-2000美元的压力区,建议在1450美元以下开始低吸。
从操作来说,以太走势依旧强劲。但是在目前也算在高位了,冷风就不建议追高了,如果有所回踩我们在考虑布局吧。操作上,建议放弃一些不确定的小单,关注以太大的支撑压力即可。主流币跟随大饼波动,按照大饼节奏操作。
山寨币三个原则,大饼稳,板块热,龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点,一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调,存量资金搏弈,局部式行情,而这局部就是山寨币。今天大饼,以太都选择了回调,操作山寨币要控制好仓位。今日可重点关注的板块是公链生态,L2,可以重点跟踪的币ATOM,people,OP。 来源:金色财经 |
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