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[lastpost] => 2682846 彭博分析师预计比特币ETF期权将于 2025 年 Q1 推出 1728526620 比推快讯
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过去几周,19000 美元的需求区域成为比特币价格的重要支撑位,导致短期反弹至 22000 美元左右的 50 天移动平均线。
技术分析
每日图表
在最近的反弹中,价格未能突破 50 天移动平均线,这是比特币走向 3 万美元价格通道的最关键阻力位。
另一方面,如下图所示,价格突破了长期下降通道的中线,成功形成了向突破趋势线的回调,并开始了反弹。如果比特币突破其 50 天移动平均线(约 2.25 万美元),则可能会飙升至 100 天移动平均线(目前为 2.8 万美元)和通道的上限。此外,RSI 指标大致暗示多头和空头之间的相对平衡,因为它在 50 左右。
4 小时图表
在经历了长期的看跌趋势之后,价格进入了中期盘整阶段,形成了一个众所周知的持续模式,称为“楔形”。然而,较低的趋势线和 19000 美元的主要支撑位最近支撑了价格,导致价格飙升至上限。
话虽如此,市场未能继续走高,因为价格被楔形的上部趋势线拒绝并在修正中暴跌。如果比特币成功突破楔形上行,其下一个目的地将是 3 万美元的重要阻力位。相反,如果趋势线拒绝价格,则有可能在 18000 美元关口出现新的短期震荡。
鉴于加密市场缺乏需求和当前的看跌情绪,新的看跌级联似乎是加密货币的可能情景。
链上分析
正如我们之前的分析中所述,矿工最近加入了投降阶段,并略微分配了他们的资产。另一方面,开采比特币的利润并不高,因为价格从历史最高点下跌了大约 74%。
比特币的难度跟随矿工的行为和哈希率的最新变动,并根据当前有多少矿工插入他们的机器进行重新调整。通常,当他们是更活跃的矿工时,难度调整会使他们更难挖掘区块并确保块生产保持相对恒定。依靠 CryptoQuant 数据,最近一次调整将难度降低了 5.01%。自 2021 年 7 月 3 日以来,这是比特币难度最显着的单次负下降。此外,这是连续第三次出现负增长,成为一年多来最长的连续负增长。
底线:从历史上看,矿工的投降导致了熊市的结束。因此,比特币可能很快就会达到其长期底部,并开始朝着更高的价格水平迈进新的上升趋势。
来源:金色财经 |
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