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本周会是动荡的一周?比特币以太坊怎么走?
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以太坊在周末录得12%的吸引力。ETH从当地低点1488美元反弹至1664美元。然而,一旦亚洲市场周一开始交易,每小时就出现了6支红色蜡烛,转化为10%的下跌。
在触及1498.95美元的低点后,以太坊在发稿时又回到了1500美元以上的盘整。在过去的几个小时里,ETH 一直试图突破 1550美元,但多次被拒绝。
以太坊为什么滞涨了
过去,以太坊一直围绕的当前价格区间对HODLers来说是一个相当有吸引力的购买区。根据ITB的数字,从1528 美元到1571美元,已经购买了高达450万个ETH代币。如下图所示,以太坊在这里面临的阻力最大。也许,这就是为什么它自早上以来一直未能突破每小时 1550 美元的心理关口。
缺乏看涨推力
昨天,与以太坊相关的交易所净流量为正 [56k ETH],这表明与购买 ETH 的人相比,更多的参与者卖出 ETH 并将其发送到交易所。今天,买家一直在积累下跌并略占上风 [14k ETH 的负流量]。然而,如下图所示,与大多数其他日子相比,这一数字相对微薄,表明引发了低看涨压力。
此外,应该指出的是,人群情绪仍然消极,为以太坊的另一场崩盘铺平了道路。加权情绪回到“严重负面”区域。这同样表明市场参与者不相信 ETH 会继续上涨。并预计价格会下跌……
根据Coinglass的数据,在过去8小时中,多空比率小于七分之一。因此,如果集体交易者的前景没有改变,则可以预期跌至 1341 美元、1295 美元。如果微型市场状态恶化,如果多头不拯救 ETH,那么接下来将发挥作用 1062 美元。正如经济学家交易员亚历克斯克鲁格指出的那样,这“应该是非常动荡的一周”。
刚刚展开的一周注定会被挤得满满当当。华尔街主要公司将公布截至 6 月的季度收益。此外,潜在的加息公告和其他宏观数据集也有望正式公布。结果,比特币倾向于在接下来的几天里滑坡。
没有那么乐观的预期,谷歌和微软将于明天发布他们的第二季度报告。周三和周四,Meta 和 Apple 也将效仿。7 月 26 日 Google + Microsoft7 月 27 日 Meta7 月 28 日 Apple
宏观相关
比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在宏观框架上有着断断续续的关系。最近,他们的相互依赖出现了自由落体。然而,在过去的几天里,已经出现了实质性的复苏。根据 Skew 的数据,从 7 月 18 日的 28.2%,BTC-S&P 500 实现的相关性攀升至 36.6%。这意味着市场已经开始调整其有偏见的方向。
事实上,在宏观不确定时期,很少有标普 500 指数和比特币没有同步波动的情况。在本周,上述叙述可能会获得更多动力。
FOMC 因素也将影响市场表现。货币制定机构的利率公告将于周三公布。芝加哥商品交易所预计利率将上调 75 个基点(78%)或 100 个基点(21%)。
然而,市场可能不一定会做出负面反应,因为在过去几个月中已经看到了几次这样的加息。最近的一份报告指出,
“随着全球普遍加息,75 个基点不再那么重要。”
今天的分享就到这里,后期会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿资询和项目点评,欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。 来源:金色财经 |
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