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上涨趋势回归、比特币11月将冲破新高、山寨季还有吗?(转)
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最近一个月,降息+大选的大环境让BTC从6万涨到接近7w的位置,MEME横飞,! W, A8 A3 b" Q( m1 q- O
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ETF现货也在持续流入,走势也是非常强势的,大部分山寨币也接近筑底,算是新一轮周期的开始。
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1 i1 r% e y% y0 L$ j' z8 l这里依然看BTC往新高走,出现一批交易机会。# } y' X$ a5 r3 r
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接下来多个关键因素推动大量资金流入:6 Z* Y4 c! k* R4 x6 ]1 C
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大选,双方候选人都支持比特币。
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美联储降息。
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& O9 @7 t8 p8 [/ O2 [+ G2024年第四季度至2025年第一季度的160亿美元FTX赔付。
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$ u/ [) e& A9 @/ T8 W8 M/ c4 _8 ^前三次大选前后,比特币都迎来了大涨,预计这届也是,不管谁当选总统,都不会改变比特币震荡上行的大趋势,只不过特朗普当选,BTC会涨得更猛,能大大缩短突破10万的周期。# D" R6 ^& u5 L. }; K4 F! U+ t
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如果你不了解洞悉主力的洗盘与出货要点,那么你将在币圈很难发财。
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以下是一些关键技巧:
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1- 关注成交量:洗盘时成交量通常会萎缩,而出货时则会放大。4 d: J$ @1 F' g1 o' y" B+ R6 Z: {
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2- 留意币价位置:主力通常会在币价拉升 30%左右时进行洗盘,而当涨幅超过 60%时,就需要警惕出货的可能性。
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6 m- s2 Q- ?& H( p A8 B: J3- 分析分时图:洗盘时的分时图往往上蹿下跳,而出货时的分时图则相对平稳。/ J+ G+ u, x% l6 L1 a0 B. v
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当前山寨市场行情走势各异,进入自身周期底部盘整的时间阶段也各不相同。抄底哪个山寨,以及判断该山寨是否已进入自身底部。7 W6 B3 M, B2 e8 s7 J' s
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10月即将结束,11月1号的非农数据可能是突破的关键,因为非农数据后5号就是大选,相信数据面不会难看,毕竟这是4年一政、权利交替的关键时期,哪怕是表面工作也是需要去维护的。在加上美股这两天提前下跌洗盘,也符合我前天的分析每一轮大选公布前2周,美股都有提前下跌洗一波,待到新总统上任,在释放利好,美股顺势再创新高。
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比特币现在的走势基本上和美股挂钩,那么美股持续的创新高,那么比特币自然顺势突破前高,飞到更高的地方,所以11月份有很大的概率比特币会突破前高73880,到达75000,甚至80000,所以兄弟们接下来我们一起迎接比特币的春天吧。
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虽然这轮比特币牛市跟90%的山寨都没什么关系,很是操蛋,但是只要比特币能够突破前高,至少山寨季还是有机会到来的。最近经常听到有人问eth为什么那么拉垮。* T$ J! R$ U& l; }
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毫无疑问,本质上是被资本冷落了。从3月中旬至今,从4k附近一路跌下来到最低饭2k附近基本被腰斩,如果不是9.18首次减息50个基点这个利好抽了一把,它就要直奔1600方向。这大半年时间里,每次大盘走回调,eth都是充当的急先锋,跌起来不输其他山寨。从这点可以看到它的弹性远不如以前。
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反观sol,从前年FTX暴雷黑天鹅飞出,跌到个位数后一路扶摇直上200,虽然最近半年内也接近腰斩,但弹性是很强的,同期逢高回踩的力度也远没eth大。两者一比较,就很清楚,这轮大周期资本青睐的是sol。
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* i5 K2 ` M4 ?, ]) Z- Ysol 应该是第5个大机会(前4个分别是铭文、bome、pandora、goat)2 _6 F) D' w* q# J7 u' {. j! {; |
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当前 sol 日收入高达870万美元,这是一些头部L2几个月的收入,sol链的活跃程度,加上meme大赌场地位的稳固,以及后续还有一个ETF的巨大利好。sol的etf通过是时间问题,综合考虑基本面和etf的可能性,持有sol会是beta优选。 B5 _7 K3 H$ Z
, O5 S; ?/ G) r) N# a- J, x山寨季还有吗?& n5 S$ n0 u" g/ W
# ]- j- V5 t1 i; e* | s1.板块轮动的行情一定还有,放心。( D& E$ b: U- K, o
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2.大饼不创新高,各大山寨做市商不敢轻举妄动,只有少部分币在拉,大部分基本面趴在地上。* d1 ?# ~# X+ n) Y
5 c. W z1 z( a, N6 ^3.千万不要看着别人的币拉了,就着急换(除非赔率性价比更高)。8 `0 U* ^/ o. T* y- p0 C. X
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未来就是你一卖他就开始拉,你一追涨它就开始回调,反复你将心态炸裂。
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现在做好仓位管理就可以了。. E) V; ~5 h3 D9 r" w
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