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[虚拟币交流]
比特币又创新高!突破9万美元,24小时超25万人爆仓!(转)
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比特币创历史新高。
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2 a& y! w) j( w) t6 ?9 w近期,比特币持续走强。11月12日纽约尾盘,CME比特币期货主力合约报88995美元,较前一日尾盘涨1.44%,日内交投区间为85890~90725美元。据Coin Metrics数据,现货比特币曾在美股收盘之前短暂涨至90036.17美元,创历史新高。0 j4 V9 G1 [ [/ d# ~' Q* N
- G/ p! }# r' ^/ n, GCoinglass数据显示,24小时内,全网爆仓人数超过25万,爆仓总金额8.89亿美元。8 o2 ?% d8 J$ ^* P, ^
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贵金属持续下挫
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近期,贵金属持续下挫。10月31日至11月12日,国内黄金主力合约下跌4.48%,白银主力合约下跌6.35%。国内金饰价格应声跟跌。本周二,周生生报价为788元/克,较前一日下跌14元/克;
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/ U1 d) l: S! ?( Z老庙黄金报价为787元/克,下跌12元/克;周大福足金饰品报价为788元/克,下跌11元/克。
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外盘方面,COMEX黄金主力合约于10月30日升至2801.8美元/盎司,创历史新高,随后持续下行,11月12日最低触及2595.7美元/盎司,累计下跌超200美元/盎司,跌幅达7.36%。
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% c% e# `' ]0 i& D1 P$ {. @大有期货贵金属研究员段恩典认为,近期贵金属回调的原因有三点:一是前期价格大幅上涨透支了部分利多,比如中东地缘冲突、美联储降息以及美国大选的不确定性等,这些因素随着时间的推移,已经落地或者被市场消化,
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; _( p+ }& B5 a. k对行情的推动作用减弱;二是短期美国部分经济数据改善,美元指数和美债收益率明显上升,对贵金属价格形成了压力;三是美国核心通胀较为坚挺,特朗普上台后若大幅加征关税,可能会导致输入性通胀,市场担心后续美
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联储不会继续降息。+ t q" _! ?, X( U7 F( ~$ e
5 B" W; {5 E) u3 S2 A7 k宏源期货有色与贵金属分析师王文虎认为,美联储未来降息节奏与美国就业和通胀息息相关。若特朗普上台后压缩财政赤字,有助于抑制美国消费端通胀,支持美联储逐步降息,美联储2025年全年或降息100个基点;反之,容6 [" h! a$ |' F8 L5 I
/ n4 T9 T3 K: L2 c5 y- d易引发美国二次通胀预期,美联储降息节奏或放缓。
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在段恩典看来,特朗普主张降低利率、减税和增加关税,并希望美元指数走弱,以实现制造业重新回流美国。美国经济对降息等政策的敏感度较高,在目前经济有所改善的情况下,减税和降息政策将使经济更加活跃,美国出现$ A4 a- T1 D. j0 ^: D2 S
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二次通胀的概率较大。前期美国通胀较低,美联储年内降息较为顺利,2025年特朗普上台后,新的政策会陆续出台,经济和通胀预期会慢慢改变,美联储货币政策执行难度将加大,不排除因通胀反弹,美联储暂停降息甚至中途0 T' \6 ~ A: g# ?* Z) x
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加息的可能。
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( c0 ?4 w2 t- M8 _* I0 u8 i; ?一德期货贵金属分析师张晨认为,11月FOMC会议如期降息25个基点,尽管美联储官员在讲话中极力回避下一届ZF的政策可能对未来货币政策造成的不确定性,但市场仍计入了二次通胀以及美联储降息周期进一步压缩的预期。) T4 C/ q, `8 C' M" c4 g" d+ v
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从当前来看,距离新一届ZF履职尚有一段时间,仅通过竞选主张过度定价其执政政策或失之偏颇。从美国经济基本面看,四季度的去通胀进程仍面临一定阻碍,市场对此前偏乐观的降息预期进行修正无可厚非,关注12月FOMC
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. ~3 Y- U. A) J( I& _" x! |# v会议公布的点阵图。7 M8 P0 S( B( A& W# Z) a
. s8 V1 ~: i. `+ U6 P( U5 {2 t“年内宏观和市场因素对贵金属行情的支撑有限。”段恩典说,美国ZF债务压力会因宽财政政策而进一步加大,中长期因素对黄金价格依然形成利多,黄金价格跌幅或有限,年内或回调整理。白银价格整体跟随黄金,但因经济和
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政策的不确定性,行情或大幅波动。6 F) [( h- [1 A1 @! R+ N5 g
4 t& [3 Q0 c! f4 I8 ], u张晨预计,贵金属的调整势头或至少延续至月底,转折可能来自后续的经济数据给出美国经济超预期下行的情境,如就业数据超预期回落。此外,还可以从美联储官员讲话基调边际变化上一窥端倪。' N/ E: w; Q5 l) `* j
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