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随着比特币一度突破10万美元,比特币对黄金的替代效应也引发业内人士热议。业内人士认为,比特币对黄金分流作用比较有限,也不一定适合普通人投资。
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而随着全球央行降息,以及重启购买黄金的步伐,黄金有望重拾升势。9 f4 _7 S% @* S6 a$ o7 ]' C8 W
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12月5日美联储主席鲍威尔公开表示,比特币的竞争对手是黄金,比特币就像黄金一样,只不过是虚拟的,人们并没有将比特币作为支付或储存价值的工具,它9 i' k5 K2 C/ N) O- F$ u
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的波动性太大了,所以比特币不是美元的竞争者,而是在跟黄金竞争。
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. [! m- v5 s4 c2 H( ~ 关于黄金和比特币的比较以及黄金未来走势,12月7日,在深圳举办的“2024雪球嘉年华”期间,业内人士也对此作出了探讨。; i/ E9 V, }( U( H" c( X- B
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国源信达总经理、投资总监史江辉表示,比特币确实对黄金有分流的作用,但是它的作用又是有限的,长期而言比特币无法替代黄金,黄金天然就是货币,货币1 J; s4 I# x5 e
8 B# S; R7 S1 b3 `3 j的属性是易保存、易标准化、比较稳定。比特币不断波动很难成为货币,只能是资产,同时它不抗跌。
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# J3 e8 [+ ?9 L7 @" o “我经常说比特币是假黄金。”华安基金总经理助理、指数与量化投资部高级总监许之彦表示,比特币的去中心化和有限供给属性使得其涨跌波动大,不适合绝大4 i' M; G9 |8 I0 Q# t+ b
/ v7 w+ o- e0 ]# [2 ^0 b多数的投资者,不适合家庭做配置,也不适合机构。; G v& n1 ]: ~9 }
) B4 M% c4 R+ N! F8 |& v 提到央行时隔6个月重新开启了购金的操作,许之彦表示,央行购金最初发生在2022年,2021年之前全球央行购金较少,2022年以后有所加快,央行大幅购金的8 S) b9 H3 `5 x) V
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原因有全球的地缘ZZ冲突因素。
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“对中长期金价,我们还是非常坚定信心。”许之彦称,美联储正处在降息周期,特朗普的上台会干扰下一任主席的降息节奏,但是改变不了趋势,因为美国宏观: D4 `* _& ]0 S0 n
4 a% `+ w7 _: d: p经济是大周期的问题,绝对不是短期的波动。历史来看,1976年之后到现在为止,黄金不断迭代,它是较好地对冲风险的资产之一,也能在配置资产中分散风险,同+ j+ \1 J# q3 F' R
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时还是收益资产。
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史江辉则认为,关于金价,即将就任美国总统的特朗普有两个主张都对金价有影响:第一是解决俄乌冲突,第二是削减ZF部门的开支。俄乌冲突之后,黄金有+ n0 y' p% a& ]/ Z/ D3 T9 k
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两个配置价值,一是安全,二是抗通胀,未来安全因素变弱以及消减ZF开支,美元就没有那么多的超发,货币贬值因素变弱,这是最近黄金下跌的原因。不过明年- A5 R, a4 q5 S, ^( w
( R2 d/ \% z3 T. t0 p降息的概率还是比较大,预期明年金价还是比较好。
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# a6 ~4 i- T( t+ n1 B" Y, m 关于黄金消费,史江辉称,今年首饰金的消费量下降了很多,主要原因是大家有畏高情绪,以及与结婚数量下降有很大的关系。在2011、2012年的时候,也有个
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) Y$ j% b) J, e6 o; p6 C9 p& E' L人购金热潮,那个时候是金价的顶部。从这个角度,核心还是看到预期,大家还停留在之前的金价预期里面,如果金价预期扭转,买的反而多一些,那么金价应该还
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) ~- ]7 _0 N9 t, x9 t没有见顶。; @( m8 z( H \7 D# i1 b/ {4 P& {$ E" J
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