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[lastpost] => 2769086 万众瞩目的Plasma今晚上线,能否改变链上支付格局?(转) 1758834869 caoch
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。8 {2 f" l8 ^) h9 `; i( b% r8 [
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。4 _0 Q# x2 s" W+ r# o/ h. O
$ w4 O7 L; U9 t) m7 ?9 i
CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。2 ]& H$ g' d/ F5 u
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:% |* K2 H' h6 |: T7 |
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;4 P' K2 i1 f& S1 B9 o, j2 p
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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+ P A* @( j; U0 n& V4 p比特币价值回归:
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# E: K, ]1 _& y% s/ M市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。$ \# \$ n: D" j- N5 Y) l
# d' u) M' B4 H. }: c& t* j随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。% K* x+ G& b+ f- @! s$ _( @) k
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。; ]+ A" c/ c9 M( D# {/ n
& X# V5 i- |& U- M3. 市场热点与反弹情况+ E$ B. [& b9 | C3 O5 E& W
) y- z* k: C% A5 ` v8 g: m+ fETH:! H7 B2 ]( U3 [- ?
; }) Y* V) X+ d4 j' H+ [虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。/ i5 @! ?% e h4 b: I# A' D
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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* v: p& J* I: C7 L尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。 u4 v6 x: v6 n. W
9 K* r" r/ P- a7 [+ {* M7 i如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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0 c3 I* X7 F8 ]+ Z/ `8 w4 n1 Y" ASOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。! W8 _, a# }4 ?/ _
$ w) a4 ~, [' [( p0 FXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。, b5 H' o0 w$ C/ y" \
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其他热点项目:6 e5 V8 ]* V; o* i4 z* z" i# o
5 j+ |' B, M* D0 D6 ?$ J4 C涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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# j U+ V( d7 [7 C山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。- k8 d0 N8 y5 R
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目& V# t* T- W' J5 J6 r. T3 e$ m& J6 I
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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0 F: a [0 `5 X3 ~( F/ Y4 H蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。, e- J' E3 ]" M- c/ m; W
1 G2 h, Q3 N' f% X新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。: w+ n( o; m, c& A
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市场展望$ G3 Y: k6 j& T6 ?$ i7 c+ [* k
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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当前离线
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