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[虚拟币交流]
比特币现货ETF流量及其最新脱钩——是时候小心了吗？（转）
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比特币现货ETF似乎正在失去其在整个市场的影响力 K7 X8 O# G# [7 q% N
比特币可能在本周下半年出现短期下跌
* u: R5 s2 Z; p/ c% `7 N+ {0 g* n) |9 o$ k周三，比特币在注意到自1月8日以来持续的资金外流后，首次录得正的现货ETF流量。然而，最新的ETF流量也揭示了一些关于其影响的其他有趣发现。
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" P. ?! L4 ]- z9 Q2 c5 O9 ?3 Z比特币的价格走势在很大程度上，这与现货ETF的流动是同步的。然而，最近情况并非如此。例如，BTC从本周早些时候的最低点上涨了12.81%，周三触及当地高点100175美元。与此同时，比特币现货ETF在周三之前的一周内只出现了负流量。7 [, C1 \; n7 t5 r1 l. F* q
3 L. S+ o! `9 H1 y4 X简而言之，尽管现货ETF资金外流，比特币本周仍成功实现了反弹。这突显了一种脱钩，这种脱钩也可能在本周剩余时间内持续。. u$ H! E7 A+ e6 d2 ?
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然而，1月15日，比特币现货ETF流量记录了价值7.551亿美元的流入。这是本月迄今为止记录的第三高日流量。# q. B8 q, B d" j+ h: s$ n! d
+ [: a+ t- k+ I( b2 n. p值得指出的是，尽管有这些发现，但在过去的24小时里，BTC确实略有下跌，图表上的跌幅略高于1.5%。: } p, h) N6 r8 r
5 Q$ e% |! O v8 k- l6 b比特币在活动疲软的情况下保持对短期楔形模式的关注
! C! r' `% i, t. T- }$ p7 t2 `; ^在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为99236美元。此外，图表上出现更多下行似乎是一种真正的可能性。
7 d, L' G- G4 ~4 q: C6 G' G7 Z- L1 j. }$ _. \1 i
潜在下行的原因是比特币的最新价格上涨重新测试了下行阻力线。它还显示出过去24小时的一些抛售压力，这表明阻力位仍然强劲。
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此外，链上数据显示，BTC在现货市场一直出现资金外流。事实上，仅在过去24小时内，加密货币就有1.5601亿美元的现货流出。
# E' u |0 E0 n: S7 ^8 N9 j% B/ p( c3 q, r4 M0 z
现货资金外流的激增表明，投资者仍专注于短期获利回吐。这可能会提供对当前需求状况的见解——这表明短期情绪并不乐观。" ]# b3 M2 ?* X, q
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鲸鱼活动也与短期情绪一致。例如，最新的大持有者流量数据显示，周三有1420个BTC流入，而同期有494个BTC流出。鲸鱼的需求更高，因此影响了看涨表现。
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5 _+ N. p2 f4 r7 z6 z# B% I6 M& k虽然鲸鱼的需求明显高于外流，但也值得注意的是，整体需求疲软。尤其是与12月的需求激增相比。
7 N$ u5 T. [$ v4 d
`' c* d; g0 {: e9 u2 z鲸鱼的低参与率充分说明了市场的信心水平。这可能表明比特币仍然局限于短期走势，在这种情况下，价格可能会从阻力位回落。然而，投资者应该注意可能影响市场的重大发展。9 c9 ^3 b6 W& m
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