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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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6 K6 r* f& N6 \" z7 Z/ |: J; B 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。* h8 |! ^- ^3 V
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5 ]1 P8 S% A. }/ e: _) k$ s- z 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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& S) E5 Q1 w! e! e8 q- J Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。% \( t7 o1 _, {' r O- h
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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% V+ g8 T/ p: ^! N+ `( u7 b* ? 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。+ Q+ ^" w# j/ G( X5 p, _
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，; v& V1 ^! D$ O: y4 T& i9 U$ h
1 b. {, ^) `# {5 e4 N$ T: b价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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6 B8 E( |3 K6 K5 v, y “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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& g! f. P6 f/ L; F( T/ ^. o3 C框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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# K) m' w* h; t3 K! | 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。4 r7 y5 p( M9 J- b7 D% T p# i8 d+ R
- }9 r1 w2 c* \ O “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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0 X' m8 S/ o% \' C4 F积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”% N/ U- w$ q4 {& p% ^" Z% u) l
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# {. q0 [ v% Y+ l/ ?, z 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势/ n4 c$ y0 y9 A4 ?0 @ h; A
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。2 O6 S2 ~0 f3 C
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。/ i# C4 U' c. C7 Z8 i: u
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”: ?$ u; K. {1 J# m
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