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[虚拟币交流]
Solana价格预测：SOL跌至$154.40 周跌幅11.7% 能否反弹重回$200关口？（转）
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Solana（SOL）在周末市场持续回调，当前币价跌至 $154.40，近 7 日跌幅高达 11.7%。此次行情下挫源于宏观层面的利空——美国上诉法院突然回撤关税利好，重新上架“特朗普关税大礼包”，打破了此前市场对国际贸易局势缓和的预期。此举直接引爆风险资产市场情绪，链圈亦未能幸免，SOL首当其冲遭遇砸盘潮。
5 W: r6 X J' D- p从图形结构来看，SOL关键支撑 $165.94 已被有效击穿，多头防线失守，行情脱离了自4月中旬以来构建的上升通道，趋势转弱。多头阵营遭遇打击，技术面陷入空头掌控区，短期内或将进入震荡下探阶段。
7 K: }* E' Y# m4 p9 [; r日线图形走势相当疲弱，连续多根阴线，已经形成“三只乌鸦”形态，显示明显的空头趋势。50日指数移动均线（EMA）在 $159.60 附近，已经由支撑位转为阻力位。MACD 动能指标也进一步走弱，快慢线分叉扩大，红色柱状图持续加深，表明空头动能增强，整体偏空。 - 支撑位：$141.60、$125.95、$112.04
- 阻力区间：$176-$188，存在强烈的上行受阻
- 动能指标：MACD 空头信号明确，RSI 为 46
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衍生品爆仓与ETF延迟上架，引发市场看空情绪升级数据显示，Solana市场情绪明显转弱。根据 Coinglass 数据，期货未平仓合约（Open Interest）下滑 3.23%，降至 71.1 亿美元。周五多头爆仓金额高达 1,898 万美元，而空头仅为 46.47 万美元，说明杠杆多头正在大规模出清。 与此同时，尽管包括 Fidelity 和 VanEck 在内的多家机构提交了六份申请，美国现货 Solana ETF 上架依然遭遇延迟，打击了市场对政策利好的期待。 Polymarket 上的数据显示，现货 SOL ETF 获批几率仍有 82%，部分分析师（如 VirtualBacon）预期一旦获批，SOL价格有望仿效 BTC ETF 效应，冲击 $440–$600 区间。但在 SEC 真正放行之前，要重新站回 $200 上方仍面临重重阻力。 ; Z* P/ [$ r$ D" V n
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