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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。
( R/ p# u F3 R* C7 ]我们先引入下列符号:5 T, N$ {+ T' d3 A( r
Pn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。
" L& }( R( [5 y! J* W, o3 `即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。7 g4 f3 H# P1 O& p, M i' H
那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。
2 ~* h( n! B: j8 O# ]Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。
% b% i* S1 ?& S( kBu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。
5 t& J$ D% s( k. I# Y( G3 D- t% }; H: x; ^' Q
在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。/ g; P! o' ~! u3 C. `& P
在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:
2 M- O& H% X( c) L1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。" s: x* q8 R3 G
2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。1 n D% b6 F' Y3 V$ j
3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。. s1 k( N: l. K" U1 q
+ v7 M$ E+ l6 e0 @* D. L, K' q* T" e那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:. x! L4 w2 X& e
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。7 k% h; [+ [! U! @
D2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。* f6 a5 M/ \6 h9 j- }) F; F
D3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。+ I' |6 f9 K! t' L% h% T4 m
, M. d, H5 a5 d: ]. X) Y
同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
! J4 h3 Q( G* z, jX1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。! n0 O3 Z" v/ [+ f9 ]
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。
4 p Q* A2 d* k8 hX3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。: m7 a/ }& A6 t/ w4 b; n
8 x) `. l) r; }, u. C& W下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。
/ e/ M" ^+ K7 Z t- z; s+ v6 u: A; w5 }0 U4 q! {
1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)! b5 d- Z9 F4 ]
: h1 z: N1 g6 w0 V. ~, V在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
4 C' P/ {. x5 \+ Z+ _8 PK=0 D0=0
! T# b! I/ Y8 Q. q+ t/ qK=1 D1=0
0 n0 w4 d2 u; U' T7 X* J! uK=2 D2=0
; D4 g. d3 S2 D# [K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
# ^. x% f: a) U* e9 l% w; U" d
7 C" x* K* ^5 l投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)/ o8 K3 `5 u2 Q0 d
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
' _" J; B( R/ w ∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo; t9 i: ?+ G7 t* d- F
O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=13 R# P/ s% C1 g" _% M
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)$ H- ] b+ a+ A" Q, V! Z
或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)1 H8 c$ M- r, O M
* W# O6 T Y% P
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:; E3 _1 ]& b4 X7 C+ O4 _
K=0 X0=Bu*U ! L- _" w: ?, I; J4 g7 i# ?
K=1 X1=Bu*U
0 w( j' H6 E$ W3 k/ xK=2 X2=Bu*U
6 }5 x2 g9 o3 s3 ~K=3;4;....x X3+=00 ~6 L$ ]+ _: p- {3 R3 [
) o0 {2 ]) j; c( s) ~投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U8 Z0 E9 }# M/ v7 S5 P4 x
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
) j9 ~* |0 y+ A8 {, H ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu
% i% g# J& G7 n2 m U*(P0+P1+P2)=1# M! j0 \ r d1 L( e( c
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)/ B3 d0 z8 l" Q$ ?6 R
# l& A* r, q3 E6 x
2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)
, ~" V6 B# G# W1 t- F
" q( [9 y( T; u9 R) l* d在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
5 ~: O% N! C8 L6 {# lK=0 D0=0 5 K8 {9 S Y% i8 P |* h f
K=1 D1=0
! J% W! w( C8 n: i$ g- SK=2 D2=0+ f" n! m2 S0 p" ?& q" }7 N7 R
K=3; D3= Bo
$ g: t: z' f9 T, C8 BK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
8 r H/ i$ u" p8 [# f4 N
3 L/ a+ N6 U# t* ~投注大球的期望回报总数为:8 u; U7 d* G! C% a8 m: H
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3) }% b- ], X+ e' X: {, c
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
& g1 ]. t( w( t1 m( A" Y" U+ C ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
- { d3 s" I& Y4 B6 S6 ? P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
# `+ D' k2 E$ L5 T 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
" {* G! n6 [$ t; ]& h3 f 或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)) w2 y& R9 c; A0 \
7 f! C+ v7 {% U T$ ^
在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:4 |" D" _" P1 P) _) |, N% y% h; F
K=0 X0=Bu*U 8 v: J3 s. }6 o" O2 @
K=1 X1=Bu*U
' \. v2 M/ f6 _K=2 X2=Bu*U
8 R7 i; A. s1 e7 B ~1 n; vK=3 X3= Bu
1 _( S$ }# g3 k( q4 ?4 J$ Z* d( A6 cJ=4;5;....x X4+=0; d% A) ]0 t" O& l4 ^' [5 G! m
+ g% ^7 Y" F. ?( H0 h6 i0 b投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu
& t" a2 J, z: w. ^: i在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。( T2 r4 {9 G; b- a9 G, {
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu
* Q9 U5 H- j, d' F U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1" E4 c6 f1 V$ |" {: s) M1 G) c; R
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)
: y7 |0 e% ]& w" m; A1 u. d$ [- v8 u- m* z/ {' A. @/ f7 m% k
3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)9 V h3 M' ]* q# [* J+ {
) g! o9 b- G' r f
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
% o, y, K+ e; H9 q% X4 v. @8 mK=0 D0=0 . y) s I3 P' U# X* f
K=1 D1=0
|1 r' `. E5 a9 y& nK=2 D2=0
% }" X1 D0 V9 b1 SK=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)
0 L6 `, ]; r5 E I7 PK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
" A- S5 i2 f e& g; Y4 S" l! l! w+ `' T
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
8 Z/ E( S$ f5 b7 j ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)6 b' A$ g0 C& E) t4 |
= P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
& |) h6 M! V/ Q: T8 K在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
% k3 S7 n; w- J' I* ? ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
" ^3 d% H1 R' ]9 U P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1: x+ M. Q9 y( H, Y @& B3 c+ E
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2& S E6 ]3 o+ z0 B+ N
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2)
% Q% M2 [. @ B1 g! F a( G1 ^ V" T0 Y' W! |
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
! M' h& F7 l/ e1 OK=0 X0=Bu*U ' a- ?9 L5 C- q, ^' m
K=1 X1=Bu*U
! K7 _( t' H6 iK=2 X2=Bu*U 5 {# V9 _7 S$ q) U, C8 E
K=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘). {5 r6 `: d. M! ?/ e+ b
J=4;5;....x X4+=07 j) P! r# c% p( R3 [) }) {2 {. ~$ N9 I
& K8 }# ` L0 Y, Y( O
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2$ u* N$ C: I& c/ X
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。: F1 ]0 J |5 _
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu' `3 u' X& i# E' X5 O
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1
: y7 A y- H2 J' G7 ? 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2); C4 ^5 T* R( K9 m8 e/ {: @
* g" ^% I1 b; o* i4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5); ?5 X& J* |' `: R* J" r) O% p
! j& V8 @4 \/ `5 G1 @
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:" y4 Y2 z9 d* ^" I2 ~3 P8 d3 a
K=0 D0=0 5 B' A2 N# R7 h+ Y( g+ _
K=1 D1=0 & B0 b" A: P) y; c9 l3 G( R
K=2 D2=03 O9 |0 E4 m- }/ v& a# w1 Z5 B* G
K=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)' }2 [) }+ q& `1 V: s! q2 V
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
p! i: W; _8 T1 O" `
. {! g! E$ ]( u' j投注大球的期望回报总数为:
+ G# s2 s" C) \- \% [3 a+ R$ S ∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
" h- H: u3 d5 N2 B1 P M = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
7 {6 g/ f6 I6 D, g2 P" \在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。+ g( `+ h9 S% J: k0 \/ G% A
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo. r7 o3 ]2 u6 k9 `- I
P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1) \& t, w. O6 D8 E8 }% L7 o8 L. l: c
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2
' J% {* k$ ^3 ^: s. c 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)' f% l( ?' O8 I
或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
" c( s8 o# g+ G# W' z2 t' b3 a7 `4 r
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
) {' S7 M$ U! U C W$ ]9 qK=0 X0=Bu*U 8 g, J# Z. s% `- v1 B& v
K=1 X1=Bu*U
' d% |% k; o/ I2 d9 G* ?7 y4 }" XK=2 X2=Bu*U
6 w% \) Q/ v& |1 `7 q5 ? ~K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)
7 S* M- c& _# `' a7 h# {6 p! x$ z, `J=4;5;....x X4+=0
) g1 W2 j5 S) b; A/ k. _8 K, L& j
9 s& @6 `6 ?9 P3 J' E }投注小球的期望回报总数为:6 e7 m6 a# ]( k- M5 _- f$ g+ v
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2
' q: C4 y; n7 g9 M. B+ U2 v在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。/ g/ w, G, a! j. |9 c
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu
1 A+ w% M6 y4 [; x8 J1 q; B" M U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1
# y+ b `. F. J: o7 v' @* U 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)
" f$ E2 V# _. v9 [6 c# f( [
) ]* w# S; n6 S6 W
6 z! V r: N1 P) t3 ?2 w一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.' x* }' M! D; U4 t
大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!* Y* N. C/ O# D
7 c6 u+ ? B' n$ h2 [P0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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