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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 , l8 x& {" d  g2 k

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! e& D# A9 L8 g/ [: l只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔4 n5 N; P! g% v
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
2 F' W2 E; v) x$ E/ f1 }. {: Z7 `* K9 A1 l( Z) j- x4 B. ], D0 W7 q
偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。1 f& V( k* t4 g& ]6 F$ D

- o" x: O  f. C0 ^1 \. Y8 D: P方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）4 f# y' }( _% C& H: x

+ b' H6 t! j0 h1 W9 F, j  @& I然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，: f# K8 ]) a2 O3 _9 R
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱  ]2 \5 q0 o( e5 t' R8 T

; a4 U$ Q3 v* R当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，( B/ J& E7 g3 }% `0 t

# ]7 @4 ^. m7 H而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，; R& g+ Z. D8 }: _! O7 d: T! ?

+ A1 r0 E  @! I: I, b但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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2 S- U0 P+ T- O9 u4 I3 X# t, J理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，2 o- w4 B" S' Z% ~( i5 Z, |

' z% M9 q- t' C3 `' X但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，3 c  H$ V+ X) \2 K6 M
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，0 u, A2 w: N3 |# M7 P; n) V0 X

, P, l' }( M; }. K几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。0 F: X- _; G2 ]
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7 Y8 X5 g' V( u2 F" ^6 b, g% v' c' g常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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3 W3 I/ D& @! I0 Z放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，! _& D* j5 E" a0 M  T

2 \# W( C' M4 m3 ]  M: d' n就是回避了大的亏损，
8 P- ?8 I  ]( @  U* N$ D
% O' i& {3 V0 B- ~/ b8 f大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，  k5 ^5 {! t: p, t8 ^# b; T- z$ \

: C; z% x; N' Y/ W7 `. _2 a回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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