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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
$ N- O* \3 E( ~' D, ?. d3 Y& Q+ d" v7 E6 M# D

2 J5 w' z- I) N% A5 J. V只跟踪一个联赛6 ^- y4 s# h$ {  H$ H7 _$ S7 M
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! b+ ~" B, O) ~( y4 ^( e全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔4 k" V: X- h' ~0 K) G
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）' L* r7 ^6 \/ ^  j9 X; {& c

& j3 G; ?7 K! Z) K$ Q然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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# [6 f8 H0 ]+ J: `就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱0 D9 s  n9 s9 B9 {) n' ^

' t$ j! z1 [& e! U* T当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
$ S4 r) U2 ^- a
  a: M. M& \$ S- ^! A而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
# c0 R, _( C. p: K9 t) S" |9 N! x/ K  l# s1 S  u4 m
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。& G' E7 W1 |% R: `* b# t* u

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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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$ y7 n9 X+ Z8 K" J排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
8 Z1 D6 j! r9 a1 H; n( x! ?3 J3 z) F4 V# ]; ^/ V4 Z0 ^
这比买国债存银行合算。/ v7 S8 T; i: v* V0 ~1 h
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。7 R8 U, c) D( G3 p  T: X

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5 u$ M4 u. K. \' b& y' J- j
常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。: ^, O) N) t- b+ W1 o3 `, K

# E$ W. y2 f* l* C9 D2 H+ q5 d( \5 d7 v放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，7 j8 R, [/ h& Z. F
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，6 u4 G  ]  V) w, K& `4 }. n' Z

/ ^5 c. l/ n+ Z. W2 ^* b回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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