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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
! s- w# `( R9 e6 {. f3 n( e* D
' R* a+ E7 m J; w' u0 U 平手中水,主队有利7 O! B# V$ Y7 Z" {9 q
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。/ J t2 R3 K( g9 X" k+ b0 b
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
: y! ^7 r9 P- b& M' F; L( ~# O 英超主队" E+ R1 Q, m1 q& x
胜:13场 48%
/ T+ v* m4 b1 a9 I3 R, }4 H 平:5场 17%
& m! d$ Q- j \5 y' }9 V 负:9场 35%
' P2 V, u. g( \& a" n( n 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。! q7 G: v5 p g k+ |0 {
) ^3 P0 Y9 H% P; [7 o& J; q+ S8 u 一、初盘阶段$ `9 f6 y9 e3 A. P8 j0 m3 C: E- h# ~
具体到水位如下:
% x) `5 @- |/ o, @; G8 X. u 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
$ s. G- g; L# }: i+ _ 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负# v; V! ~! g, ]% m- s
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
3 @, p% C6 M' j3 `5 B6 Y& H7 V+ Q3 P( _ 2 ~7 ^ _: E# R1 ^0 ], Y& R8 L. T
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
( E4 ^& p' a5 v2 ] 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
( Y2 ^2 K4 u' H 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
- V, T. a' k* r1 Q5 x# @3 T
, z4 E! |) p: l! E$ M! K* H5 [ 二、临场阶段
1 r7 {0 f; @( t5 G, ?4 i& N6 w+ D
+ F4 ]/ M& m, @5 j9 G 具体到变盘和水位如下:2 R' U: D9 c1 W4 e3 M
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
. q1 Z$ w3 ^ Z0 e 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负% g# G3 D' N0 d
( |& ?' @( q& V
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
+ W* F* H6 ^ o3 B 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:4 ]& { L* ?( \
) Q: \1 P |( C% s1 \4 H 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿% L# N: m4 [& B. C# U( ?* t' p
初盘:0.82平手1.04& M; |/ z2 r) l/ @) V
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85! @8 D4 e2 V0 C+ u. i
Y, \, X9 F, N* F5 K$ @/ v
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆& e4 v3 u, {! t1 W+ j
初盘:0.76平手1.10
6 T. U& g( z1 |6 I* D4 E% C 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91, Y9 c1 d8 x) n6 k! N$ e
' [' R q$ W& d5 F8 E/ b
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
+ j5 u3 Y- L/ w' w 初盘:0.82平手1.04
- p) n, v& O( p6 _$ D 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98+ n. a @) T6 [# p6 o
$ N5 ~7 ]: y# J3 a L4 n M0 g& S% Y
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
2 {4 ^+ G8 a$ d 初盘:0.88平手0.98
3 S) q' n& \$ q) J8 L4 J 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
7 b- M4 T9 z4 I( u; T' s 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。" X, \1 P' s5 `/ }2 n
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。9 E+ o; n9 f1 o& V4 h
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
5 t4 ?3 W$ l# e . S, Q6 `! t7 y* G7 d
三、球队表现# N9 ` Y6 h1 e/ a
1 v0 Z" ?# A( L, H; O! p
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
+ X% I) B" F6 T8 r 1 U: w. ^4 V* K/ ?5 s
四、投注要点
( T' @- g- I0 L- l5 \ 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
* o0 N# W, o' f2 ^3 r, h 要点2:平手降盘、走两头! q- Z X# R- Z. R" w4 [
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
$ U' @+ J+ B9 k+ X 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大7 T! Z; E& C1 k( G% K
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任) B3 S* N& H' D* c& W) o) K* ?/ ~
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大9 J) W ^9 @5 a+ A* j
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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