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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘3 c6 }; L0 ^4 `$ S; ]
     * H* p& `1 m3 f/ u
     平手中水,主队有利
! w( ~. }% r0 E0 x* S9 x" B     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
  ]' C: r# w+ _- J% }& l# v4 H     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:% l8 ~9 r) s2 m( W% @# @! S
     英超主队
6 [( G  Y9 d7 [/ c$ e+ B/ k  o     胜:13场 48%
2 K* _; L2 z% f+ u$ ~% h- {     平:5场 17%9 W" {: I; ~- l- O
     负:9场 35%
3 L! d& t4 \9 L0 Q     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。; D% m5 M! y/ C, d& u" e$ J
     
% s! C3 y* X0 F7 g  U     一、初盘阶段% H+ o0 ^0 ?3 M/ E/ m8 [
     具体到水位如下:
% s% g' c( ^2 i6 @- h# o" X. R     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
/ ]& m7 Q1 F: [+ x9 p# s9 [     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负% T8 k& x- X- }7 N! ]' F4 x" C: F
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负+ d7 ~- E. F  E5 i! F! E
     , w! m3 k) b7 u! V  u% [, x: }5 v4 |
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。2 B9 s" N( |  @2 I: D- R
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
; C1 h, ]* I; {( L8 F$ S     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
" {0 k5 L* w6 w6 J+ z     
+ W4 V! o: U# i     二、临场阶段5 v/ y( _5 f' v8 y0 {1 {: s
     
# Z( O. ]/ Z- v6 a( ?     具体到变盘和水位如下:
. S* |' Q$ Q% H     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负4 |7 l6 D1 Y4 |
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负7 r7 o% m0 P  G4 q
     
8 }2 {7 E: A7 @9 N     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。% \$ a  `) E+ Q6 q+ T
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:6 F$ H+ q9 |: x8 p
     ; R+ O! L- M! `0 J
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
) N' U4 }# \: l  v' b2 a     初盘:0.82平手1.04
, I1 p1 t5 _+ E4 X; n, M# T+ Q     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85' x# A, ?- u: L; V% z
     
' l7 b/ }0 Y4 A4 j     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
4 ^5 ^5 m+ r; ^     初盘:0.76平手1.10
, J1 M' V! R5 t  L; Q9 v     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
) E5 w1 K0 X4 m2 q+ [# i/ u1 e' e, K* C     
3 @0 k# [5 S; p, I     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
) L& }+ N- s6 W     初盘:0.82平手1.04
# M- a  @  w5 S% J/ p     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
; W5 v, y9 A/ A" a  e6 F     
6 e' L! @9 X* S9 |0 ?     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
7 v6 R" u! [: \  j# E: n0 V     初盘:0.88平手0.98
5 l/ W; b  d( c3 @9 _9 J     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
" k1 T$ ~7 c6 H3 I% S$ b     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。: w( k9 v$ V' {" x: h/ G$ y% y( e
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。$ e. R- l  {+ N; o- H, L0 T
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。. p' l+ @. u) T+ E7 L
     
. g2 ^7 Z0 ^6 D+ |/ D     三、球队表现
$ _7 r7 z& w* C     
" l# p( d3 Y3 g& H2 C; ~3 I  W7 Q1 p# F     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。6 g8 r1 G& _0 Y
     
6 e# e  U9 h6 J' C- y# d     四、投注要点( F1 p2 o. g" F5 x
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败0 T6 r* s1 j5 w
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头% z6 L6 {' s2 G, O: `5 L. [
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败; b8 Q( o9 R- a5 c+ O2 A
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大$ p; Q$ u; G# c6 F2 l2 t6 f
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
+ n! W. c5 @( C' c" n% ]& [4 j/ n     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
- {' Z# R- X; V  R6 ]6 n( T0 Y/ T     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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