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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘2 q* Z" A5 v+ d1 O# U& ~( ?5 x- f
     0 b6 M6 ~+ K% `
     平手中水,主队有利% t. e$ _- p$ `" N; Q2 Z
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。  w7 I: Z% ^0 V& z: `1 b5 B
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:1 w: c5 C. d" |- ~) f. W" Q4 S
     英超主队
" W. \8 _' g+ O     胜:13场 48%4 G$ A! ]5 |/ v( Q4 q& A+ ?
     平:5场 17%
6 N( L8 G; x1 s) R4 z0 n; X" R     负:9场 35%
% |9 e7 F) L0 U" m: U7 ^, P     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
- a! g" W$ ]  L( D% T* B  E( |! t) E     6 ^+ C" I8 e+ T
     一、初盘阶段+ S- P  K6 H4 H" ~# a1 ^+ a$ y
     具体到水位如下:
" h: s& v9 y* E9 W     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负/ ^4 U( t3 s0 \
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
' e+ V3 B4 ^# ~5 I$ K& L     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负5 j& K& {0 y) j& s8 l3 [9 P8 J; F
     
# M! t; j* j- Q     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。$ @8 }3 h+ E5 M  E' D4 G
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
( [7 _) d# u5 ]& Q% A3 X; U- w     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
8 v/ g' y) r, n2 s4 W     
% A( ]  k; J7 @+ [# U     二、临场阶段
; j7 G5 K$ s7 Q' D" _1 w) a. S% K     ! j# B$ {$ a0 w
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
7 d6 [" R* k: w     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
$ o+ I; ^2 s, `0 w9 N( u2 k     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
5 N/ u+ z# C/ s8 M     
9 L9 [' O% W# j7 q: J     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
# a- F0 k5 d! S- \' G4 d     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
6 ^9 x, l% X; x* _) z     
( Y) c/ N: Q+ w3 ?) C9 C     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
5 h( [5 T* q2 u, ]     初盘:0.82平手1.046 X2 O, g: y2 K1 Q- n, D
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
7 B$ f  `5 b% d# {, g; o; X4 u     
" `. m/ S  P7 i' u& B5 }     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
( d. R1 c2 y; z) u$ Y     初盘:0.76平手1.10. _% d8 n( s( l& f. I- S# y" v
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91, M$ S. v- A/ Q7 D% y- b% r
     
2 X( Q7 F8 k0 ^8 a8 ?     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
1 u6 J, |- w# ]! Q     初盘:0.82平手1.04
4 ~& T6 ^! _7 ~$ z9 |; j; ^2 ^+ y9 d     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
: V& \+ A( a- l& b     / R! |5 `2 M7 I6 I6 \
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
  T  Q6 H  C* d* K0 ]     初盘:0.88平手0.98- d3 t$ {! _& k6 t
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
: F* d$ t1 T* S4 `     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
0 {/ d2 @" i$ }' F! Z; y     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。0 Q! c: D) n3 P4 ~  Q9 R* E
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。  i6 t- Y3 M/ w
     ( C: R# S) r% @8 c1 q3 I5 J9 b" z
     三、球队表现  A+ k, v# g: L( T+ m$ \3 U
     . p) O! X( f0 k7 B
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
0 ?+ z3 C1 \4 K! ~     ( a# g. Y4 k; T: ?' e7 u% @
     四、投注要点
; N) A9 H1 s5 J, l- _% a     要点1:平手中水、主多不败7 ]2 [2 X* d+ z  ?- Y: z/ D, H
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
2 V- Y- w6 f& Q: e" R# m1 Q1 @6 K8 a; P% ?. J     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败3 O5 p" `2 d7 @
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大# Q  n, u; S4 N  D8 T( X
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
, b* B/ E+ @% N" m  ^! \( O     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
6 t1 B5 u5 p0 ^' ?) B* x     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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