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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。4 F0 G+ P/ C+ S8 n6 G
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率+ M7 Y. P+ o: k6 |2 T
5 Q7 }/ J: a0 S/ j* ^
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:. k$ e/ X1 E1 Y/ S' ^
( g7 H k" Q. I U& }- q# W皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
* X2 Y* L" u& H1 g7 ^2 M( U) ~" I: u
# u8 m+ t( X( }# K" n. p8 j很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?: G& ?5 Z. |) \6 {. [
a. h0 g) X- m F8 c答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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B K) q- @. t: j1 I# C4 p' e以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性. u: l: X( D/ Q' Y
/ A" M1 o4 N, s, Q2 o" y3 K3 H9 m对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。* u9 `: |* L" z4 ?5 V) S
( V3 F9 T! L7 P增值
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$ X0 H% t, k( K6 w( J9 V许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。( o0 y6 f+ s0 D+ |" L( y. z# }
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
1 p) e! `' N- p4 k1 _6 O6 d1 Z3 L ?$ l, |# K3 ^: c
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
% U# c" R8 ?% k6 ~5 N/ V* @8 ]60%的机会你会一无所有4 z. [ x& R3 ]+ T
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 - x! T6 @; Q4 `% ]/ M% D6 R
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
4 ^& t6 n2 ^: w. ?) [8 Y+ x( v( \2 j; n/ B0 v( ]
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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4 l( i S+ u; a8 ?基于增值的投注% K" X- U; j# x. T; @/ B( X& J3 `
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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. h9 ]5 ~; ]0 | d/ r+ Z, ?公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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. e! X/ l1 g. G5 A S4 @A=博彩资金
4 H& e% H% y0 m t" p5 AP=获胜机会
! n) z: W5 C: v( ]. ~O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。7 Z& j, A+ y) a5 y
# @9 q$ w8 _3 O" G( h好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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2 z0 e2 C- m- |% ^1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)3 W4 T" p' p9 b" I# D" `
3 L8 A9 r# ~* }" \$ T& PA=09 ~) R s z4 u- c4 w$ ]# q
3 N4 V; G3 U i& m8 D% w结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢, P6 [- h0 h6 D9 g9 |, q
+ r3 A5 z2 l/ G5 u2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)- S* }& T8 b3 d
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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' X7 K J" l$ m; d% U/ e$ UA=0.1
+ G) {' @+ [9 S$ _0 U6 Y+ F& v; J+ |
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去) j( S. N) Y4 |: }% y6 g5 p9 Z
2 n4 c _9 e) g8 ?7 f
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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F2 W0 d/ Q6 X+ z4 lA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)& |& m/ o/ C" Z! c1 k( u0 U# i/ A7 y1 w
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A= -0.2 2 l$ b' z: ~$ ]+ Q8 u8 v3 b
' E1 v# z+ M1 [6 m6 S) h: ^结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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s$ Y7 i+ D/ l3 p S第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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