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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。% k# o- u% @- P, R- p7 N2 ~4 _
+ z0 o3 ~- f" e7 x7 H& m# W+ x
3 \! S/ j0 T* H0 {西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
' C, R, r- G' G) B3 d b* |4 L; \, X2 g y
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
4 v9 b6 o" }* C9 x6 Z/ d
, x" `, M3 a9 m# a4 u/ [皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ( [! B7 [& D' k6 _
5 l0 E7 Z5 _+ w6 p, E很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?8 M. J" _% j- g; I2 `. X
7 `" A: I4 Q' w7 Q
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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! P( x; l& ]8 | I& K) _7 D
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?: n+ M( d' O, W) a( n
/ }# `' U& P9 ?! w: ^# [5 N
9 ~+ v% ?0 u+ ^2 X2 ^. c" y% y盈利可能性) J; f' {8 D+ ~7 _& J; U) g7 q+ u
* N: j8 f2 V D9 p) M对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。: |+ ^ b0 G5 {. t' |9 Z
! x0 y# m$ a8 {3 o. r* k增值
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' n6 T \8 y* D许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。$ B4 T; i3 C6 D0 E$ i. L
; O+ j' p0 T7 d" @8 X/ X3 b% Q& Q你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?# v, z! ^4 j0 _" A! M2 x+ v
2 E1 ]1 A; ^6 U8 C
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
2 ]% {' ?2 C4 W' R( \* z9 N1 k! M0 X; i0 b6 s
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么/ ^2 k: g: H' b% ?; _3 N
o; Y) N: k. p. a$ y' ^) `
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润7 Q7 Y( W$ _# I; y9 p( [
60%的机会你会一无所有. ?3 m5 m6 g5 B9 N8 ]7 o; b/ }8 C
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 9 W5 e6 ], O7 y" a
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。6 y. G7 {# U* J7 X- O* _* v+ `) j
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
8 u R* {! `( p# v# B* A( s4 Z+ Z; D" v% j$ E) F/ q9 f3 j# p7 t/ `
基于增值的投注
D- X# K! `9 t1 P0 \% {* z! V$ u+ l3 s7 [% a" v
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。3 A1 t/ j% P" r
. e* q. I+ @! c8 ~+ k$ u$ r3 X公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
5 u" Q# k# S. Z: o$ F. k$ B" S) K4 G D: Q7 E) f6 c
A=博彩资金& }% X, E. a$ [6 p6 `+ W: Y7 F
P=获胜机会
: r# m) ?: v3 a3 HO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 L, A4 X, k ^9 p D* s% {
: D& {* ?. F, C6 u7 h2 ]0 T! A
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。9 w0 Z5 S3 d' Y$ _
5 n- Y3 [3 Q" u7 I好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。) t& m3 r2 T* f0 t& `' V0 q( o
5 b$ f6 E/ B6 m8 N$ N1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
3 K3 H; l3 ]# a0 Y7 {8 }" r- u+ E+ C4 J. f: v' u R7 u! J: W6 ^
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
$ [ L+ @- M# ?6 _( m. P3 r
7 e% K/ P- P. h5 R4 ^ o, ^. `6 Z, H2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)- a9 }5 H! [4 F, T2 w, G
P* H5 h4 w/ k+ C# n# TA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
3 A% R# F) o0 F0 j5 e& h. K/ V6 P: u. R: K6 N( ~
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
7 S! c- W' y% r6 c: Y) C; n9 {: k+ S5 `/ N U h% p! N
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)) |5 P4 Y* D2 l) v9 s) g
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
1 \. S. L( I* p R' w [: r4 s4 ^% D/ P6 h' J, m
A= -0.2
) t0 y8 q* i+ _
7 }. \8 j! t% m5 g1 |; i结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
, c6 k, E5 A& T# s6 f
- j# F; s5 q% P7 E0 f6 M9 R7 z2 c! Z8 R第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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