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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
) n" W T) _% I1 j! `0 {& s+ D余勋也不例外、
& g# w" Z% H* y* c其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 1 I+ L; t# v$ o$ r4 ^, E4 p$ |
是保经济的重要决策！
/ R4 p6 L! P' D+ m2 V& a这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
* ]4 F- P- o: w3 x低点26700-32400、 + V, U, E% Q( q' h8 y% V1 b
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
0 b; t* n. S/ P: V) h) @但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
$ z1 M% n% T0 T& H% r8 A# V; {大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 ! {9 Y( X% ]4 l7 B
涨幅就已回撤过半！
9 v0 }7 \; ?2 d! K" g# H, c所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 ! v; @* O% Z; @$ A# T& c
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 : b7 S1 N+ u7 n3 _1 z
其次、
( Z+ S5 l% f* W: p6 Y, o缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 9 a- P; B' y- v9 G! k+ \9 |
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 ! ^) k; ]& i9 r: [
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
5 L' _, z1 s$ j' H. k2 N美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 % X. ~! S& d& P
但回到币圈、
/ h: F+ r0 g, l4 N" @ O& `去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
( G5 y: i% w3 i4 l1 T在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 5 D# S) B# f: V/ W9 c
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
S4 ?8 O) J U6 _% i( n* F. N个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ) c. a2 V# c4 ?" i% F( G, h
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
' T' e* H; \2 s+ ^: R+ K j/ n对当前的底部、影响有限。 " H, N+ @2 B9 x3 n) z: C
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
' k$ l! U2 m) ?8 X0 S' u- V所以27000、即是 3 \8 E) P4 I) i. b; d
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） & g7 a; S& R$ _/ C
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
8 F$ y% ^) v. y3 a也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
) P$ L7 \) S0 k由此得出的结论是、
/ p6 ?' D7 S7 l5 |加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 / C1 p& Q9 ^, t8 `" f0 `1 I
点位不会出现太大偏离。
& P' f" {' Z2 g! ]0 L综合以上、 ' t9 h, k s' n1 ^* A% I
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 $ E% _( V2 I* p" K: ~; L1 o, j* a$ {
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 3 j. |/ N3 k5 q* ?" J- P
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 7 m% {3 g3 y" N+ g; n
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
& f r) D1 ` s; v$ r0 b那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
& `1 s( ~0 C1 F即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 ' u( r% @% r. ?+ C4 b
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
( _9 O9 M% K5 {% k9 M夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 1 q, s0 q/ P& k
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 ! K+ l: ?( R# i
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
/ W6 q; M) ^) h6 d高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ! p# p3 k; j- w! K- ]
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
9 t4 I9 m0 m; C" F, T得不偿失。
4 X- y% Z$ o4 \7 t0 M9 s# V5 D) a来源：金色财经 |
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