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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 6 M" B, l( i' S
余勋也不例外、
" R% k. m9 d/ L+ Q/ `, ~其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
$ }4 B! w) k1 I7 R L是保经济的重要决策！ 9 h/ D1 N, W7 k9 `3 ?0 j8 ~3 g: r
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
5 N% c# e8 t0 b( W3 ^- U' l低点26700-32400、 ; K5 H% m& S& x
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 $ h" q" {/ p Q- K# _! I/ l l5 ^: H
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 % D. @6 I+ G* q
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 5 f B5 u0 {5 \# V f/ f, m2 R
涨幅就已回撤过半！
( c, Y1 B$ P# a- C! N$ i所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
5 r, @- V( D K) d$ |% c不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
, B' B+ \( I) |3 b- a其次、
; I$ E% k* x+ }7 `7 c缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 5 B3 M* J, r( N% ^& m! }, Y! i* S
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
- m* }: }; u5 [7 E- |' u等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 7 R3 Q3 S" `; m0 D/ j
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
4 S" v0 m4 G# ]但回到币圈、
8 n5 H) M! u9 i7 @2 a5 R4 {去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
9 l1 l" D X* J* g& ?/ X" j在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
6 k/ r( X, P k# @: t- H而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
8 b% I- ^5 ^6 y9 K& |个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
+ |$ o8 w7 m& B( o2 o+ z缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 ' w0 j( q2 S- z
对当前的底部、影响有限。 & o6 @/ c% I5 t+ }! `4 W
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
! _ [# O6 m' g, y0 u6 A所以27000、即是
, K3 g; R" g9 x9 V% N去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 0 ^& [3 [4 ]$ K" p5 R. j4 G) B
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
$ L" n! l' q6 `( ?6 \5 g也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
7 L. x# f6 Q6 M F ?% l0 n由此得出的结论是、
% w* H- q$ }9 }2 I: z3 B加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
, j7 b2 C0 ]/ S! g* G. [点位不会出现太大偏离。 % T# p! `" e1 u% n3 _2 A
综合以上、
- }$ ^" z# V# ]5 G7 n; j1 v- B% O美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
( @7 g- d+ `+ S8 d: D$ B" V( D在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ! U: F' p( ?3 K! k2 b( y+ h' z
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
5 ~1 s) o; Y: w5 v; S! Q4 L抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 3 }, M, a. X( R" {6 [' g. L
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
* n& M4 H: ^- @即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 / P$ H/ v _: A8 z4 t c
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 - V9 L; F7 `" q7 o- d; ?
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
3 A$ f- Q \( A8 W7 N2 @大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 7 r1 b8 a# v, F; l% h4 Q
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ( Z% m* L3 X# S- q+ r9 w0 f
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ! B) E) e, g% t8 F+ g' ]
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
' w: c* |3 X& R+ b" }得不偿失。 , }( Q8 ]8 }' d' ~4 v6 d% N0 O
来源：金色财经 |
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