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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 0 v4 }1 _) C6 W, n$ H
余勋也不例外、 : J5 G N4 E7 U2 |
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 , P, C: l* `, M+ o8 s( [
是保经济的重要决策！ 4 W. W- p- c) R7 @) [& ^! r* X
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
) y6 [ S- M" B低点26700-32400、
9 @' i" i8 _: Q# f( x2 q6 b反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
) B N: T2 u6 ]% B但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 ; r+ ?6 Z1 `0 ~+ W3 P4 @
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
, h3 F% I! V, I/ @5 B涨幅就已回撤过半！
T1 b6 `. n2 h+ Z) m, V所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 ' o3 ~& M+ m9 a( F
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
. t/ ~" v' G+ I* S( O7 h1 Y* P其次、
- |7 F! ]4 [0 W- B' m+ Z. q缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 % r& `2 k+ H. `0 X% s
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
; ?. u! z3 d' N4 `( s4 T! M [: C6 X等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
7 E6 c$ s+ ^; F& T5 y美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
. [9 C( m6 \; L% b9 q但回到币圈、 # `' A+ w. h! t, J
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
( L$ h; V. a" c) [3 M在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 6 v. p" J) @) Y3 U
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
1 g c# W7 k2 o- I个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 0 t$ h( T7 K# h- ?. Q, V. S) y
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
/ g& z/ M5 S: C; s. t对当前的底部、影响有限。
) I5 h* z6 G7 ]( p6 i' F最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
: a: }9 J- f% D/ w所以27000、即是 , m2 c `/ C* |! k) u1 w
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
( M& X. J( ?7 T: D8 h7 A: \4 u同时还是去年放水初期低点、
4 n0 S. d: P1 L! J也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
- i' f! u7 Y+ E! b' t/ o由此得出的结论是、 ! E: u9 C" V! m' [ K
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ( _1 |. G& x' r/ | C
点位不会出现太大偏离。 4 t3 {- H8 G; E" o. a
综合以上、 ) Z( J5 j" f# s* W( D/ J0 m
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
! F* F) v: s% S6 A0 i4 X在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 1 }$ B' l4 C5 g) N0 D9 k
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 % B* i( y/ I# x) d7 K
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
" G$ ?/ X; Q1 O1 ^8 t2 R: `那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 : J' ?' C: @" S) O H! \6 X3 |
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 $ H5 F, n# _6 @ Z+ p% q
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
( Z. M9 m& p8 {: k2 c夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
8 A+ j* L8 ]7 M) `大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 N ?8 s! z G2 {* N" \
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
3 E1 q2 l5 x0 L* Q) r1 h2 l- C( n, T高空需至31700-32000间布局、 L8 }8 z/ U* W2 _% _
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 8 \( |" B* J3 T5 n b* b U W. w
得不偿失。
4 _5 u; N8 W* e% z来源：金色财经 |
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