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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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+ t+ |9 Q$ R: ]' Z) Y- c% G1 ^但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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& c) M7 \/ C& _ x D3 X) C5 a$ JUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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\6 l4 ]% ^; q C开局艰难，但历史看好牛市: |! W+ H) ^% B H7 b$ s( t: y
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。+ d( M! `3 T5 c" D* e7 o3 K
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来源：Alphractal
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8 x2 z u/ N; E- O+ [+ k+ m9 X+ B" B# A15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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" X7 T- \9 O$ g+ A0 Z$ \& u( y/ I尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。' C# a d& r% |8 [, G M5 J
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事情变得有趣了. R- A& V& ^2 _- W
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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( i; [7 J5 O2 a" [8 k3 @来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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, H/ q2 C* Y* K6 q) V$ c. \8 aBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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8 t- q/ d: i" L正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。6 C% z5 H( X, N8 @
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。! E1 u0 p7 M# R5 {# q4 ?
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力; c+ v: S( B+ J! d" k, \! X
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView
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0 t* c2 }0 R3 {8 E日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。9 C9 i9 [& d- W
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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0 ^7 }1 M2 O# q* ?1 \, S2 P/ m/ G. Z突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。/ |+ Y* v& }# g$ x5 `0 {4 r- `
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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