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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。, j" [4 k9 m, Z2 {, y& E# x
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市& f9 a6 c) @: I; Q2 e
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。5 E, P/ o+ p i. S& Q& G) U
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来源：Alphractal, L7 Z) b! |4 ^) o, V1 c7 K2 e) Z5 [
8 r2 t+ B1 I3 L& G8 w' h15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。9 S7 T v- L1 U& ^; y I
0 C7 \7 L/ Q& i& j' J事情变得有趣了3 B4 P$ b' k/ w3 B8 M Q
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。3 W6 n& l; d/ V0 f: M
4 K" q% m" Y/ m$ w; e5 G/ eBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。3 J; Y5 ^3 z( j3 O9 Y T
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。/ V9 M) h! M# N1 c
7 @& v: G" z% `+ X' O! K$ {% @随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。 E: v {6 C; H+ N x
; d+ A9 i9 v% o+ P空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力4 R8 s7 t- V' U8 z3 a: Y
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView) N1 Y; { k) x! j3 H7 E
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。+ U% x. ?; _3 f! L$ r6 X
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。& b+ N6 b' f8 I5 |/ t
! m6 K) _; ^4 O: ]; q5 i$ S突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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