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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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0 b( v8 b: W$ \) e) M: z但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。0 ]( Q2 x0 l( Q- \4 r+ W# W
b& a, z1 B( T8 r2 I+ [+ v' zUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
0 I2 J" ?3 r9 B" x2 t9 X8 t2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。/ z% h6 G3 ?3 ?# Z* z
$ B3 K7 ?" J! U% }0 b M来源：Alphractal
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: q; s' h% T+ ]- Y3 ]) u15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。$ q- B- G4 Y# \ y, w4 D$ ^: D4 Y
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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" E! n( { Z# C3 g1 h事情变得有趣了
# Z j1 o% m8 E2 n T/ K& sBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X3 i. }, J# D5 \, I7 |/ Z
2 j7 D9 D9 Q) R: Y; A% n, l根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。" T; j0 {3 g' u2 g: J
: L3 w$ @1 V7 ?6 B5 L9 dBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。, R! |9 Y. u0 Q. R/ i
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。8 l7 @$ j: {) ?1 j
2 p0 T0 U* u' I) E' v7 W空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力4 p% c6 ~9 z9 `% S/ H' w8 Y
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView
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7 k# L! h1 g/ A5 f日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。. y# P3 d2 b G" f4 }
?: e' g: m& T7 k% v然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。- H s9 Q7 A6 e1 c" b
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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