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[lastpost] => 2793643 比特币价格逼近9万美元，失业救济申请人数带来意外惊喜（转） 1767197284 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 " B' X- u1 X+ m1 c. T6 D9 ]0 G
余勋也不例外、 & N0 K& \( I7 e! u5 R
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
/ K3 L% r7 {+ v& K是保经济的重要决策！ " e; |7 B+ t- E. `$ D
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
" E+ H, a9 b3 l( Y低点26700-32400、 [& Q6 l0 h8 ?" c* k1 |
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
- F& \4 M* Z8 ~& D# @) r5 n& p8 r但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
* N/ I1 W) N) i1 D0 U! u2 Q2 P大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 0 I- f8 y5 d2 C4 }
涨幅就已回撤过半！ # g* g! Q* A! D. E0 e4 m
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 5 a5 L; H+ {4 a1 J! @. H( a. N
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 : ?/ e% T% K' G
其次、 % Z" S$ ]; E2 B9 \
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
% N3 [# W; B1 v. ?* w- B每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 & }$ C5 j1 k4 C3 E h
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 9 {! h, A8 a& f# Y& n
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 ( ~" I% t0 T8 e; h: I) O: S
但回到币圈、
6 I+ o, }) _- R; ~去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
! M9 F" ?; o; {; a) a在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 + b- ]* t7 e& _( C
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
' u& C9 b' ^! k' ^/ f& o个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
: \- {8 d( Z1 _ d& J缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
) O4 J4 `: P/ y' S7 y0 {" L* {对当前的底部、影响有限。
4 j5 U+ Q$ [1 Y8 o5 b% v最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 8 b" C/ k/ W$ ^) c# A
所以27000、即是 , o4 `# y2 r) r* a* Z/ y- G! J6 ~. x
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
$ g& @/ A+ L1 `8 T3 X同时还是去年放水初期低点、 # c' B7 [' [8 o& @$ A2 n% y
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 * Y _* w0 g& f# D7 S; K5 ]
由此得出的结论是、 V4 I$ J; q- R) a, O$ D- x' j
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
8 H) L _$ z; u" C. s, L点位不会出现太大偏离。
% T5 V0 {+ t f& b" \7 m综合以上、 ! k' G0 c5 V* e& |0 z
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 % S T" Z0 ^) A
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ; r; }0 }! {/ H
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
4 I6 v& Z# n5 {( F0 Z: f抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
: \8 O4 t4 X0 o$ ~) l0 U& i那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 8 u# L# }/ ?) p
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 # U' G w4 ~9 F
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 / @ n. n) C+ w1 m7 f
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 ' c7 n+ T) b2 A4 Y8 ~" K, f
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
6 P/ g i0 V' m0 w! S" _$ S* q逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
: r* e0 m- x- Z9 [( I! y$ U: l1 L高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ! ^* e5 }. C1 W2 a( k% f8 ~; J
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
5 P3 t; a" g& n; B" {: R* ^1 C8 k得不偿失。
+ V: Q2 J/ T5 N6 ?来源：金色财经 |
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