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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
* y2 h9 C' f9 Y# }' M% s$ A$ ?$ T
/ C5 J- Q) z$ @5 [ W2 N 平手中水,主队有利
& ^5 _- P6 u5 C 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。, v" n6 O. q2 t# ]$ ]" U
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
6 v+ a$ ~2 \- I( N 英超主队0 o$ R# s) d- V' q+ w7 h' f$ n+ Q
胜:13场 48%
& Q) i. L& o0 f7 m( z/ t9 a 平:5场 17%1 L' q6 Z1 s# w0 \0 o
负:9场 35%: l% n, n& K; t
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。% m0 T _7 N" G3 {
* j- |+ M& ]# h* v4 e 一、初盘阶段
7 y1 N6 S# ^& D* |+ | 具体到水位如下:, f0 g$ I% b9 f2 N- v
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
/ Y* o; C; s6 u/ u1 K7 m 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
% Y5 R& n! a0 j0 w9 A8 ? 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负6 h- E, Z u+ } K" ?. {9 _% E
+ J, G! n9 Y$ J! {. z 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。' W- \7 [* k8 j3 W, W5 L
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
: k2 K% }2 ?6 @: V 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
3 K4 `; Q& Y1 k6 h& t 8 X& }/ c5 }0 ~$ A
二、临场阶段
& L7 D0 k p! ~! W# V' x$ M$ {0 B
) d- C! q/ e; o0 g. M, c+ Q0 L 具体到变盘和水位如下:% N- X& C; |, t& W, W
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负* r$ f$ k$ E* Z a3 E- Y0 V
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
7 }1 [- o# f/ ]. r : {% G3 G$ Z5 J% Z8 v! O/ k
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
- b& w1 D: g$ x0 ^& u 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
: ?* d! d6 \9 }/ M/ z, M
4 Z3 _2 ~# x1 E c9 E( R; M 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿7 ?; A6 |! W% h7 X
初盘:0.82平手1.042 z6 K1 p- n7 d# X1 n6 |
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
4 X- R/ e5 R( K3 @8 M$ n' j
. W# b& {" b7 [8 Y! m( @) J" L 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
& s. u. x& o# D% e; g$ x! x4 F9 L6 } 初盘:0.76平手1.10
" n! C. G* ]" ?9 B& Z 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
8 K- j! }- f/ N, m
) Z2 c+ v) m1 H' V# X 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
# H1 f$ Q+ {4 F' w! q g/ [ 初盘:0.82平手1.04& J7 i U$ h2 ^4 H6 z
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
) S, `/ a; ~& q, q5 O+ F
1 h; G* k T$ Z. R0 Y# M# M 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
$ A- @! f" U7 v. N$ \ 初盘:0.88平手0.98" v2 \ }5 b) b# y; I& J5 f( T
终盘:1.12平/半0.74/ {: x0 I* s8 s$ m" e; W6 g
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
d8 c& s# }9 Z7 Q; S, y 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。; C f7 \& S; G! p0 \
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。 M! K! {! ^6 Q8 d! o* Z7 \- S
' x- q- N, d, b 三、球队表现8 o7 K7 _' F/ d& ?6 {+ W
. H9 n0 q( }1 Q0 x0 |3 ` 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
+ b' J, H3 R' g1 t6 o4 L3 N1 ^
1 Z/ t) M( k$ [* b% f# h 四、投注要点. l8 Y* L3 u! P; u. A/ }
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
h$ X* u8 O) `& ~! A5 s 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
3 Q0 w: ]2 j. X* G7 u* S 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
, [) s' E/ u( w# {' ? 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大) G4 ~; [- S9 I/ w+ U
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
6 z9 O& {8 H' R9 H 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大3 W1 k6 q r+ m# f& _( b
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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